Big ugly bill updates

[Greg Bernhardt]

Passed the senate with shinanigans and now likely to pass the house. Total capitulation from the legislative branch. We have a crisis.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-big-beautiful-bill-vote-07-02-25

 

[gleem]

I was particularly displeased at Senator Murkowski's move to keep her constituency happy instead of not voting for the bill. She lamented afterward about how she disliked the bill so much and hoped that the House (has the guts to) would defeat it (because she doesn't).

More and more I see a need for term limits for Congress so they do not see their office as a career.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Senator Murkowski's move to keep her constituency happy instead of not voting for the bill.

Shows her true nature. A snake.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Today looks like vote day. Dems stalling, but won't do much.

 

[fresh_42]

Here are some interesting links:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/17/Estimated_ownership_of_treasury_securities_by_year.gif

I guess the orange sector will be growing soon.

Debt Clock USA:

Staatsverschuldung USA - Aktuelle Schuldenuhr 2026

Die aktuellen Schulden der USA: Wie hoch sind sie, wie sind sie verteilt, wer sind die größten Gläubiger? Fakten, Einschätzungen, historische Entwicklung.

www.gold.de

(Not that ours was looking nice.)

US investor and hedge fund manager Ray Dalio recently issued a stark warning about the economic risks posed by the US's rising debt. According to Dalio, the United States is in a classic debt spiral: government spending consistently exceeds revenue, causing the deficit to grow steadily. To cover this deficit, the government must borrow more and more money, which could lead to a long-term loss of confidence in the dollar and US bonds. Dalio emphasizes that this imbalance between spending and revenue will ultimately lead to economic instability and social tensions unless structural reforms are implemented.
...
Another driver of the debt explosion could be the tax package planned by Donald Trump, the so-called "Big, Beautiful Bill." While this massive tax reform package could provide economic stimulus in the short term, it would further increase the budget deficit and thus the US debt in the long term.

The video essentially argues: The US debt is enormously high and no longer sustainable. The national debt has now reached historic proportions. Lenders are demanding higher returns, and bond prices are falling – a clear indication that confidence in the US and its ability to service its debt is dwindling. The US finds itself in a dilemma: On the one hand, bonds must continue to be issued, which creates further debt; on the other hand, rising interest rates lead to higher interest burdens, which further increases the US debt.

According to Bravos Research, the US government is increasingly trying to conceal the debt burden through political maneuvers and follow-up measures such as interest rate policy or spending cuts, rather than actually reducing it. But such cosmetic interventions won't solve the problem: The US is financially on the brink because its debt burden isn't shrinking, but rather growing. The markets are sensing this – and reacting accordingly. The declining dollar and the fleeing capital flows are clear signals that US debt is increasingly putting a strain on the economic system.

Die Schulden-Bombe der USA: Ein Finanzsystem am Abgrund

Die Schulden-Bombe treibt das Finanzsystem in den USA an den Abgrund. Die Schuldenlast sorgt nicht nur für einen schwachen Dollar, sondern..

finanzmarktwelt.de

Foreign investors by region and size of investment in US dollars:
(Sorry, I was too lazy to translate the Country names. The article suggest it is in Dollar, but it could be Euro.)

• Japan 1099 billions
• China 768,6 billions
• Großbritannien 765,6 billions
• Luxemburg 424,5 billions
• Cayman-Inseln 397,0 billions
• Kanada 374,4 billions
• Belgien 361,3 billions
• Irland 338,1 billions
• Frankreich 332,5 billions
• Schweiz 300,6 billions
• Taiwan 286,9 billions
• Singapur 257,7 billions
• Hongkong 255,7 billions
• Indien 234,0 billions
• Brasilien 229,0 billions
• Norwegen 159,0 billions
• Saudi-Arabien 135,6 billions
• Südkorea 127,8 billions
• Mexiko 100,8 billions
• Deutschland 97,7 billions
• Rest der Welt 1589 billions

Immense Staatsverschuldung: Das sind die größten Gläubiger der USA

Anhand der Staatsverschuldung in den USA und deren globaler Verteilung sind die damit einhergehenden Risiken gut ablesbar. Das sind die wichtigsten Geldgeber.

www.stern.de

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

The bill just passed. What a self own.

 

[gleem]

A close look at the Big Beautiful Bill shows large discrepancies between what the administration is promising and what nonadministration sources say the bill will give

The Tax Policy Center ( see https://thehill.com/business/personal-finance/5384586-trump-bill-tax-cuts-medicaid-snap/ ) released its analysis of the bill and does not paint as good a picture as I believe most people are expecting

House Ways and Means Website

The typical family will get up to $10,900 in additional take-home pay.
Workers will see increased wages up to $7,200.
Households earning less than $100,000 get a 12 percent tax cut compared to today.
Locks in and further boosts the doubled Child Tax Credit to $2,200 for more than 40 million American families.
Locks in and further boosts the doubled Standard Deduction, increasing it to $31,500 for families.

White House Website

The President’s legislation will put more than $10,000 a year back in the pockets of typical hardworking families.

Certainly most families consider themselves hard-working and typical.

The Tax Policy Center says that the upper 20% will receive 60% of the tax cut that totals about $450B per year based on the expected lost tax revenue of $4.5T over the next 10 years. That alone leaves only about $180B for the remaining 80% of the population or an average of $1364 per payer. Now there are additional benefits like child care deduction increase, standard deduction increase, and no tax on SS benefits, tips or overtime pay (but only for the length of Trump's term) but cannot get close to the $10,000 the typical hardworking family is supposed to get. Much disappointment is coming.

Trump is buying votes with these programs to get support to do away with democracy.

How the Democratic Party can reverse this remains to be seen.

 

[Rive]

Much disappointment is coming.

...but I think it won't be based on the less than expected tax cut. Based on the reduced spending (together with the trade war) the economy as a whole is expected to get a serious blow.

 

[gleem]

Trump has presented a lot of surprises to his constituanciy; reneging on some of his promises, the unexpected way he is having others' implemented, and the yet to come results of his tariff program. Who knows, maybe more surprises.

The thing I don;' understand is that these cuts will have a significant impact on red states. Why would congressmen permit them? Oh, maybe they think they won't notice. Perhaps there may be a contingent that will accept the cuts because it will also affect those they disapprove.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

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