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By Roger McShane, China editor, The Economist [The World Ahead 2025 edition page 40]
The first 2 paragraphs of the article:
The first 2 paragraphs of the article:
China loves Trump
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SUMMARY
The discussion highlights the perception of Donald Trump in China, where he is referred to as "Comrade Jianguo," indicating that his presidency is viewed as beneficial for China due to America's perceived decline. Chinese political elites believe Trump's self-interest and lack of intellectual curiosity provide an opportunity for China to assert its global vision. The conversation also touches on the geopolitical implications of a potential invasion of Taiwan during Trump's presidency and the impact on semiconductor production, particularly concerning TSMC and UMC, with timelines for establishing new fabrication facilities outlined in detail.
PREREQUISITES- Understanding of U.S.-China relations and political dynamics
- Knowledge of semiconductor manufacturing processes and timelines
- Familiarity with geopolitical risks affecting technology supply chains
- Insight into the implications of leadership styles on international relations
- Research the impact of U.S. foreign policy on semiconductor supply chains
- Explore the geopolitical significance of Taiwan in global technology production
- Learn about the role of TSMC and UMC in the semiconductor industry
- Investigate the effects of political leadership on international trade and relations
Political analysts, international relations scholars, technology supply chain managers, and anyone interested in the intersection of politics and global technology markets.
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Plus, if China invades Taiwan while he's in office, he'll just roll over and say "pet my belly".
He might, but that will really bite him. As I see it, if TSMC and UMC are off-line for any reason, a potential time line, assuming an extreme sense of urgency roughly looks like -
Brick-and-mortar done in AZ (assuming they really do find enough water for all these fabs) - 2 years
1 12nm fab line equipped - +1 year, assuming orders were placed at time zero
1st production wafer of driver device off the line - +1 year
Driver device has acceptable yields and is ramped to volume - +6 mos
Fab is ready to accept wafer starts for additional devices if capacity is available at this point.
Fab can be expected to yield well without lots of device specific process engineering for any device compatible with the design rules - +2 years to never. In the meantime, other devices can built, it just takes a few months of process tweaking to get the new device to yield well.
That's just for one clean room facility bring up - each separate such fab line will take a couple years to duplicate and ramp to volume production, although if one can hire enough process engineers they can certainly be done in parallel, and probably would be.
My gut feeling is planet earth would be 5'ish years or so away from getting out from under losing TSMC / UMC production capacity, assuming there was a united West behind replacing it.
In the meantime, Nvidia truly can't get their devices built, and they would be in good company on that unpleasant boat.
Analog / mixed-signal semi's are in much better shape, supply chain-wise. Its really advanced node digital devices that are so subject to geo-political risk.
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