Dividing Russia between the US and China

[Spathi]

Russia's success in the war in Ukraine is explained by Putin's rejection of the defensive nuclear doctrine. This is the first war in history, when one side uses nuclear threats to dictate to the other how it can and how it cannot fight. I don't understand why Biden didn't broadcast nuclear threats to Russians: he could have recorded an announcement for them like "if Putin nukes 10 our cities, we will nuke 10 Russian cities." Talking about these scenarios in Russia would have led to a drop in Putin's approval rating.

Right now, as I see it, there is an opportunity to divide Russia between China and the US. Russia's economy is totally dependent on China, and if China stops buying oil from Russia, it will experience economic collapse, including famine. Then Putin's rating would fall to zero, and Putin would agree to any conditions to save his life. He would be able to guarantee that Russia will not use nuclear weapons, and that the Russia's territory will be divided between the US and China. China will get the eastern part of Russia (Siberia), the USA will get the western part.

P.S. It is quite dangerous for me to write such texts, and if some Russian silovik reads my post, I want to add that I would rather see the threat of this scenario coming true, but not the scenario itself; I hope that if this scenario starts to come true, something would go wrong, for example a war would start between Russia and China, and then the Putinism would fall.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Russia's success in the war in Ukraine is explained by Putin's rejection of the defensive nuclear doctrine. This is the first war in history, when one side uses nuclear threats to dictate to the other how it can and how it cannot fight. I don't understand why Biden didn't broadcast nuclear threats to Russians: he could have recorded an announcement for them like "if Putin nukes 10 our cities, we will nuke 10 Russian cities." Talking about these scenarios in Russia would have led to a drop in Putin's approval rating.

It is unfair and lopsided. I suppose Biden didn't want to increase tensions around nuclear war even one iota.

 

[Spathi]

I suppose Biden didn't want to increase tensions around nuclear war even one iota.

Biden said that Putin is a war criminal. Do you know that in November 2024 Biden once allowed Ukrainians to hit a Russian military warehouse with ATACAMSes? Then Putin started threating with nukes greatly.
Your logic is "when somebody threatens you with nukes, it is rational to surrender". No, it is not rational:

Chicken (game) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[dlu]

Your logic is "when somebody threatens you with nukes, it is rational to surrender". No, it is not rational:

I think everyone knew that Putin was blowing. His threats of nuclear were a mindless attempt to play 'cross this red line and you really see what what I'll do". Red line kept shifting.

Since no one wants a nuclear war ( remember the mutual assured destruction from the stockpiles many times ), it would be pretty stupid for Putin to be going down in history as the one who started it. Not the legacy he wants from his own people, nor the world, at least from the ones left picking up the pieces. NO statue for Putin.

 

[Spathi]

I think everyone knew that Putin was blowing. His threats of nuclear were a mindless attempt to play 'cross this red line and you really see what what I'll do". Red line kept shifting.

Since no one wants a nuclear war ( remember the mutual assured destruction from the stockpiles many times ), it would be pretty stupid for Putin to be going down in history as the one who started it. Not the legacy he wants from his own people, nor the world, at least from the ones left picking up the pieces. NO statue for Putin.

But in fact, the Putin's nuclear threats are working. This is the first war in history, when one side dictates other side what is allowed to use in the war, and what is not allowed. Like if Hitler declared to their enemies - "I allow you to attack the German tanks with rifles and hand grenades only, and if you start shooting them with canons, I'll start using chemical weapons".

 

[dlu]

But in fact, the Putin's nuclear threats are working. This is the first war in history, when one side dictates other side what is allowed to use in the war, and what is not allowed. Like if Hitler declared to their enemies - "I allow you to attack the German tanks with rifles and hand grenades only, and if you start shooting them with canons, I'll start using chemical weapons".

How are the Putin's threats working?
Do you have any evidence that the threats have hindered Ukraine's response, or the west response to supply weapons? Have any nukes gone off yet?
Making threats is one thing. Having the other side feel give up due to threats is another.
What am I missing here?

 

[gleem]

It is said that the threat one uses against his enemies is the one he fears the most.

 

[Spathi]

How are the Putin's threats working?
Do you have any evidence that the threats have hindered Ukraine's response, or the west response to supply weapons? Have any nukes gone off yet?
Making threats is one thing. Having the other side feel give up due to threats is another.
What am I missing here?

For a long period, Ukrainians begged Americans to allow them to strike Russian military warehouses with ATACMS missiles, but the Americans refused.

 

[dlu]

It is said that the threat one uses against his enemies is the one he fears the most.

Threats to be analyzed for their worth in the game of war.

 

[dlu]

For a long period, Ukrainians begged Americans to allow them to strike Russian military warehouses with ATACMS missiles, but the Americans refused.

Questionable whether the decision was due to the nuclear threat, or more realistically at the time a limit so as to not escalate the conflict, but keep it within 'disputed' regions of Ukraine. Much like the Pakistan-India conflict is border centric and not involving more interior areas.