Strategies For Managing Financial Instability in 2025

[Greg Bernhardt]

I've been following Dave Troy for a few years, and he's been on the money for Trump, Elon, Putin, and crypto. Late last year, he put out a document that helps outline some existential threats to the US and world economies and ways to navigate them.

Here is the doc. He updates it regularly.

Managing Financial Instability In 2025

docs.google.com

I've pulled back on investments and put them into cash as well as curbed spending to save.

What things are you doing?

 

[Grinkle]

What things are you doing?

Same, increased cash and cut spending. Not sure what else seems safer than doing nothing.

 

[OmCheeto]

Wow. That's quite the document. No mention of 'people' shorting the market. I've seen lots of people mentioning that on social media.

It looks as though I accidentally followed his recommendation of diversifying, several months before the election, and a bit more afterwards. Last August, nearly all my money was sitting in my checking account collecting zero interest. Now I've got 70% in cash, 20% in stocks, and 10% in precious metals. With everything fluctuating illogically, it's difficult to know what to do. But I do agree, that diversification is probably best. Hmmm... Maybe I should stock up on more dried beans.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Now I've got 70% in cash, 20% in stocks, and 10% in precious metals.

40% cash in money market, 30% cash in short term CD, and 30% in AI stocks

 

[Klystron]

At perhaps the most rudimentary level -- food -- I keep my home pantry stocked with several staples that I rotate through usage. Those with arable property or certain co-ops can garden and grow many items but this post considers a basic condo or apartment.

While a simple concept, rotating bulk items over time requires practice. Restaurants and large kitchens maintain inventory, ordering replacement foodstuffs upon depletion and/or expiration. Just in time (JIT) purchasing works well for smaller households in urban environments with many grocery options including home delivery. JIT includes fresh foods such as dairy, meat and eggs, and fresh fruits and vegetables

As my household has shrunk over a long life, so have my requirements. I try to spread grocery orders across several local sources acknowledging consolidation trends among large chains.

Cuisine and common foods vary by locale. Older technology such as canning and stocking canned goods can be augmented with frozen foods and pre-cooked meals, the latter my preferred method to avoid additives and salt.

Example Southwest American pantry items include roughly 5-10 lbs. per adult (3-5 kilos) stored in a small closet:

• Various paper products and wipes.
• dried legumes: pinto and other beans, split peas.
• dried pasta variety
• brown, white and basmati rice
• Sufficient bottled water to cook above
• at least 10 gallons per person drinking water
• Bottled juices, canned seltzers, etc.
• various canned proteins, soups and veg.
• wheat flour, oats, cornmeal
• various dried fruits: raisins, prunes, apricots, etc.
• nuts: walnuts, almonds, peanuts, cashews, etc.

The trick is to slowly rotate food items through normal consumption. Augment frozen meals and pantry items with regular fresh foods. Remember to rotate bottled water.

 

[Rive]

No mention of 'people' shorting the market. I've seen lots of people mentioning that on social media.

I know of people who have been continuously shorting the market for the last five years or so.
Or at least, they are really loud about doing it.
Right now the mid-term bullish trends are still just barely being tested/teased.
Of course, people can bet. But that's just a bet. Not even an 'educated bet'. And certainly not 'investment' or 'preparation' or 'managing'.

 

[Borg]

I've pulled back on investments and put them into cash as well as curbed spending to save.

What things are you doing?

The opposite. I am currently cash heavy and have started investing in aristocratic stocks using a dollar cost averaging strategy for the next six months. Unless the earth explodes, I'll be doing the same for the 6 month to three year period and the 3+ years period. I have preset percentage goals for asset holdings at each time frame.

Additionally, I've written a python program that lets me estimate my net worth by taking into account existing assets, income, spending, vacations, car purchases, inflation and stock gains in both 401K (non-taxed) and non-401K accounts (taxed). I am also tracking my current net worth, positions and purchase options via another program.

 

[Grinkle]

investing in aristocratic stocks

This is, imo, a very rationally reasoned investment strategy.

Additionally, I've written a python program

I'd be interested in knowing how your tool's results compare with the planning tool that your brokerage house provides (assuming you use a brokerage house that has such a tool). My broker is Fidelity, and I use the Fidelity retirement planner to give me the basic picture that you describe.

 

[Borg]

I haven't really looked into the tools that they have. I usually just prefer to create my own software.

 

[EricDMMiller]

Thanks to the pardon of Trevor Milton, expect US markets to tank.

How can investors ever trust holding a US asset again? A company can fully fabricate its entire value and there's no repercussions if the owners take your money and just walk away.

The US investment market exists because of trust in the system. Trust that information is shared truthfully. Trust that you do in fact own a piece of the company. Trust that the system will make infractions like this whole again.

That's all dust now.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

How can investors ever trust holding a US asset again? A company can fully fabricate its entire value and there's no repercussions if the owners take your money and just walk away.

Too many insiders and greedy people are looking to make a quick buck. The markets are not rationale.

 

[EricDMMiller]

Let's smash another 2000 points off of the Dow at open on Monday.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Another 500pts off S&P 500 is predicted (-10%)

https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-much-stocks-can-fall-4e2e742e

 

[Rive]

Just 500pts?
I'm not entirely convinced yet that this fall is 'the' fall. The trap of these exponential-like accelerating charts is that there may be always just another short squeeze left in the pipe - and that would mean at least one more, really aggressive top ahead.
But if we have really seen the top, then just more 500pts is really, very, thoroughly optimistic, by my opinion.

 

[Grinkle]

500pts is really, very, thoroughly optimistic

I view the 10% down last week as pricing in now-inevitable GDP drop (lower growth) with an expectation that tariff's will ease before the US enters a recession.

I think perhaps another 500 pts is a reasonable bottom-estimate for that set of assumptions, with some recovery if indeed tariff's ease.

I don't think a recession and/or stagflation has been priced in at all - if that happens, then my own view is the S&P could see 3000'ish levels for many quarters to come.

 

[EricDMMiller]

I don't think there is a bottom until the tariffs get removed.

Bitcoin has seemingly decoupled from both traditional markets and other cryptocurrency now.

Edit: I know that cryptocurrency was talked about negatively in the document that was linked in the original post, but I think that the recent market movement has shown fairly conclusively that Bitcoin is moving into its own asset class.

Personally (as a lawyer with a bit of a practice in cryptocurrency law who was mining Bitcoin in 2011/2012), I disagree that the comments made about cryptocurrency in the linked google doc are in any way applicable to Bitcoin at this point.

If there is interest, I can go into some reasons why, but don't want to come off as a crypto bro (I am definitely not in favour of crypto, generally).

 

[Rive]

perhaps another 500 pts is a reasonable bottom-estimate

In my book (not investment but ... well, let's call betting) these accelerating (bubble) charts are usually go-or-die rides with no middle ground.
Thus, I expect either a short squeeze with an even more aggressive new top, or a hard break down to the 1700-2000 range (SPX) in two years.
And I think next week will more or less tell which comes.

 

[Grinkle]

usually go-or-die rides

If institutional fund managers are like me, then I'm afraid you are too right.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Futures down 1500

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/06/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Well NVDA has put a wrench in my IRA. Trump has erased their moat with the chip ban and China is developing their own chips with their own low cost models (DeepSeek).

 

[Borg]

This pretty much sums up what I've seen in my investments where they're back where they were in March. I'm still purchasing the aristocrats on a weekly schedule through the next five months of the current six month period. The market is still a chaotic and uncertain mess but the first storm has passed for now.

Stocks unleash remarkable comeback after a historic dive from Trump's tariffs announcement

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

The market is still a chaotic and uncertain mess but the first storm has passed for now.

The tariffs haven't even really kicked in yet, and the markets, desperate for gains, are risking it all, but the big brains are all saying a recession is almost a certainty.

 

[Grinkle]

July 9th is the expiry of the tariff pause, that's a day to keep in mind as it approaches if one is concerned about the markets.

 

[Borg]

The tariffs haven't even really kicked in yet, and the markets, desperate for gains, are risking it all, but the big brains are all saying a recession is almost a certainty.

Agree 100%. I'm just saying that the first storm has passed (mostly). Yes, there is still a lot of bad weather ahead.

 

[gleem]

The tariffs are kicking in. Today I found coffee up 40% at Walmart in line with the tariff rate for Brazil.

 

[fresh_42]

The tariffs are kicking in. Today I found coffee up 40% at Walmart in line with the tariff rate for Brazil.

Google is your friend. MAGA and drink coffee grown in America. We used chicory during wartime.

 

[gleem]

My parents drank it during the depression into WW2. I

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Lots of talk of a housing crash, crypto crash, AI crash in 2026. The polymarket is trending lower though. Interesting

US recession by end of 2026?

Polymarket | This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarte...

polymarket.com

How is everyone protecting their investments? I went full cash a couple weeks ago.

 

[Borg]

I've been buying Aristocratic stocks this year and have generally done OK. I got hit by the drop in KMB when they decided to buy Tylenol though. I'm still net positive but that was a 13% drop on that stock.

 

[OmCheeto]

About a month ago I invested a couple thousand in some weird 'shorting' stock with the ticker: TSLQ
It basically does the opposite of what 'Tesla' stock is doing.

It seems the only thing I can remember from my youth about stocks is that a P/E ratio of around 20 was the base. Lower than that was better. Higher was worse. So when I saw that 'Tesla's P/E ratio was ≈300, I decided to take the plunge. I mentioned this on FB and I think all my friends now think I'm stupid as on Jan 1, 2023 it was valued at $1500 a share, and when I bought it, it was down to $20 a share. But it's up to $27 now, so I'm guessing they're kicking themselves. Obviously, it can go to 10¢ a share in the next 10 minutes, so please don't follow my lead unless it's just spare cash to lose.
The stock market is IMHO, simply gambling. And with so many rich people manipulating it in their favor, like casinos, the odds are against us.

I'm still not bored enough to day trade. Though, OMG! I've been monitoring my stocks daily for over a year now: since Aug 2024.

ps. I'm still stocking up on dried beans.
Oh, and an extra months worth of T/P.
You never know what's going to happen when people start panicking.