Tariff assessments from elsewhere on the internet

[Grinkle]

I've long wished there was a social sciences version of PF. Maybe there is one somewhere and I just haven't been able to find it.

This is the best resource I've been able to find for informative mostly objective discussion from economists, at least the top level comments are reviewed and approved, the follow on discussion varies from good to terrible as one might expect.

 

[fresh_42]

Do you suggest using Reddit for reliable sources or opening a corresponding discussion in this thread or in a new one?

E.g. I have found a paper from 2018(!) about tariffs. Where should I post it?

 

[Grinkle]

Do you suggest using Reddit for reliable sources

IMO, Reddit is not a valid reference any more than a post on PF is a valid reference. Both sources, imo, would require additional backup if one were going to make an argument for or against an idea that one reads there. I posted this link because I believe it to be a place where actual economists are discussing the tariffs and in good faith I thought the community would benefit from it. If I were to find an idea that I wanted to post on in that Reddit, I'd search for an independent reference to support it or I'd call whatever I was posting my own opinion, and perhaps credit the idea to the Reddit post. Does that sound workable / within our guidelines?

I'll change the title of this thread to be broader than Reddit, and if you are inclined, you can post it in this thread.

 

[fresh_42]

I'll change the title of this thread to be broader than Reddit, and if you are inclined, you can post it in this thread.

I have found the following paper from 2018

Paper: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25402/w25402.pdf

Our results suggest that tariff increases have an adverse impact on output and productivity; these effects are economically and statistically significant. They are magnified when tariffs are used during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up. We also find that that tariff increases lead to more unemployment and higher inequality, further adding to the deadweight losses of tariffs. Tariffs have only small effects on the trade balance though, in part because they induce offsetting exchange rate appreciations. Finally, protectionism also leads to a decline in consumption; this, together with our other findings, suggests that tariffs are bad for welfare.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is an American private nonprofit research organization "committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic community." [about NBER] The NBER is known for proposing start and end dates for recessions in the United States.

Comment:

I remember thinking in 2015 that Trump might be aware of his shortcomings and surround himself with professional advisors. I was deeply disappointed then, and I still am today. I significantly underestimated his narcissism. Almost all of his actions can be reduced to this diagnosis. Musk does not count. He is all but anything close to a professional economist. Derived from his comments, gestures, and propagandistic support for right-wing extremists in Germany, I have to conclude that he is rather a fascist than an economist. Some lucky investments don't qualify him as an expert.

 

[morrobay]

How can we trust such a source? How is it not simple propaganda? "Don't trust a statistic you haven't faked yourself!"

reddit is not what I would call reliable. And "then do a search" isn't acceptable either. You claim it, you have to provide serious links, not the other way around.

Good Grief. Here are about a dozen threads with thousands of replies , with I assume some knowledgeabl people. Maybe you should see what's being said before calling it all " propaganda,"https://www.reddit.com/search/?q=Re...18eb&iId=753d0f4b-8939-4d52-9bce-fc725b99071b

 

[Grinkle]

Post 5 was moved here from another thread where I want to keep references to valid news sources.