What's happening in Iran

[Jonathan Scott]

The Guardian has an article on the obvious dangers of having a Fox News presenter with no relevant experience in charge of the military:

‘A very dangerous person’: alarm as Pete Hegseth revels in carnage of Iran war

 

[Klystron]

That's the real folly of the 'Battleship Trump'

Exctly. Once humans developed practical controlled flight in early 20th Century, military STEM professionals demonstrated the vunerability of surface vessels to aerial attack. Even subsurface vessels dread aircraft manned or not, while loitering or conducting operations exposed on the surface.

An actual "War Secretary" with a modicum of experience and sense of history would insist on air superiority before attacking a country able to easily disrupt vital shipping. Prior Republican presidents and Defense Secretaries such as Colin Powell followed this doctrine with varying success.

Intelligent defense, not slavering bloodlust, perserves order and freedom. 'Battleship Trump' does not refer to a specific weapon but encapsulates the fascination of DJT and cronies with big shiny toys on television over often hidden defense systems and strategies.

 

[Klystron]

Both newspapers of record have published updated information of an air strike on a school adjecent to a naval base in Minab, Iran. Videos appear to verify a Tomahawk cruise missle breaking off flight above the base (and school and health clinic) and causing an explosion consistent with damage to the school.

U.S. Tomahawk Hit Naval Base Beside Iranian School, Video Shows

The evidence contradicts President Trump’s claim that Iran was responsible for a strike at the school that killed 175 people, most of them children.

www.nytimes.com

This Washington Post article confirms a Tomahawk attack stating that this munition is used by the US. DJT and his War Sec. blame Iran rather than ackowledge a possible target error.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2026/03/08/iran-school-strike-video-tomahawk/

I had extensive experience testing and defending against 1970 era cruise missles including sea launched Tomahawks. I can state without violating secrecy that they are very difficult to intercept compared to an aircraft or similar ballistic missle as they tend to fly low hugging the terrain without ballistic signature.

Sea launched cruise missles of this type can change course and target in flight. The destruction of the school likely resulted from incomplete or obsolete intelligence or similar targeting error.

 

[fresh_42]

This is what I commented elsewhere.

You don't need to understand anything about Iran to see that Netanyahu and Trump started a war to cover up their own crimes (corruption and sexual abuse, respectively) and, in the case of the US, to gain control of even more oil. And let's not kid ourselves, this is a massive subsidy for their own arms industry. It has absolutely nothing to do with the Iranian nuclear industry or even the Iranian people. In such a case, they wouldn't be bombing schools (with the US Tomahawk missile), as happened today.

 

[Jonathan Scott]

Of course I assume that bombing schools was accidental, but it shows the usual lack of thinking ahead about possible consequences (or should that be just "thinking") from the current US administration. However, blaming Iran instead of apologising for the unfortunate accident is subhuman.

 

[gleem]

epistemological training

Of course I assume that bombing schools was accidental, but it shows the usual lack of thinking ahead about possible consequences (or should that be just "thinking") from the current US administration. However, blaming Iran instead of apologising for the unfortunate accident is subhuman.

Very likely due to the eviceratiion of our intelligence agencies. Our government is a bunch of amateurs supervised by an idiot.

 

[Jonathan Scott]

Now multiple sources are confirming that the exact location of the school was on the US target list, so the failure was in intelligence information about the purpose of the building. Of course Trump is still trying to shift the blame.

"Strike that killed at least 175 people, most of them children, reportedly due to targeting mistake by US military planners"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/11/iran-war-missile-strike-elementary-school

 

[gleem]

Well it looks like Trump is really thinking about putting boots on the ground. He is sending a Marine Expeditionary Unit to the Middle East. A MEU can be anywhere from 2200 to 4400 troops, including amphibious craft, various helicopters, and tiltrotor aircraft.

 

[Jonathan Scott]

How can the Trump administration (and especially Hegseth) get away with treating this all like a massive game, showing the "JUSTICE THE AMERICAN WAY" video which intersperses real killings by US forces with excerpts from popular films and video games (probably included without permission)??? This is absolutely inhuman! War may sometimes be painfully necessary (with the Iran case unproven), but it is surely never something to be celebrated in this way!

 

[Grinkle]

I wonder if we will need to establish a naval base on Iranian soil to keep the SoH open before this is all done. Wouldn’t that be a nice legacy for Trump.

 

[Rive]

A MEU can be anywhere from 2200 to 4400 troops

With the IRGC still in power that's insufficient for anything but some small scale local raids (with timely withdrawals).

 

[Grinkle]

With the IRGC still in power that's insufficient for anything but some small scale local raids (with timely withdrawals).

I'm reading speculation that likely missions are snatching uranium or occupying the island of Kharg. I have no clue if either of those is feasible.

 

[fresh_42]

I have a new hero: Irene Montero!

Elon Musk, owner of X and Tesla, lashed out on social media Sunday against MEP and political secretary of Spanish leftist party Podemos, Irene Montero, accusing her of “advocating genocide.” The magnate was reacting to statements Montero made during a rally on Saturday in Zaragoza, in which she appealed to “migrants and racialized people” not to “leave us alone with so many fascists,” mentioned the so-called replacement theory, and added: “Of course I want there to be a replacement of fascists and racists.”

Source: El País.

Irene Montero responds to Elon Musk after he accused her of ‘advocating genocide’: ‘Decent people should replace you’

The owner of X previously lashed out at the MEP for her remarks at a rally in Zaragoza, reigniting the controversy over the regularization of more than 500,000 migrants in Spain

english.elpais.com

Podemos' political secretary, Irene Montero, has reiterated her stance on leaving NATO. She first stated this in early January, following the US Delta Force operation that resulted in the arrest of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. She has repeated this position now, in light of the joint Israeli-US attack that killed Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and other key members of the ayatollahs' regime.

In Montero's opinion, Spain's continued membership in NATO puts the country "in danger, as a military target." "The United States and Israel are currently the main threats to the security of humanity," she argued. "They bomb whichever countries they please for oil, for control of trade routes, for control of geostrategic military positions."

Source: LibertadDigital.

Irene Montero insiste en que es "urgente" salir de la OTAN porque permanecer pone a España "en peligro"

La eurodiputada de Podemos considera que ser aliados de Estados Unidos en estos momentos nos sal como "objetivo militar".

www.libertaddigital.com

A Spanish MEP called Trump "the Hitler of the 21st century" in the European Parliament. She said he should send his own children to Iran and demanded that Spain leave NATO. Some applauded, others left the chamber.

Spanish MEP Irene Montero directly criticized Trump in the European Parliament over the Iran war.

"Send your son, Donald Trump, if you want war. Send your own people to the front lines," she said. "We in Spain want our children at home, safe. Whoever wants war should send their own children."

She also referred to Trump as "the Hitler of the 21st century" and demanded that Spain withdraw from NATO. In her opinion, the US and Israel are the greatest threats to global security. She also rejected the claim that bombing Iran would help women:

"No woman has ever been freed by American bombs. Not in Syria. Not in Iraq. Not in Afghanistan. And not in Iran."

Her statements followed Spain's decision to deny the US access to the jointly operated Morón and Rota military bases for attacks. Trump subsequently threatened to halt all trade with Spain. Spain, Belgium, Denmark, France, and Italy have also distanced themselves from the war.

Source: Facebook.
Caption:
"Send your son, Donald Trump, if you want war."
"No woman has ever been freed by American bombs. Not in Syria. Not in Iraq. Not in Afghanistan. Not in Iran."




My comment.

I probably don't completely share her political opinions, but definitely her sentiment on this. And this sentiment will last. Trump destroyed more than the US. He also damaged any international reputation and relationships. The US won't be allowed, for decades, to refer to any moral reasons for its future actions. It's quite obvious that the US is only ever interested in foreign resources like rare earths and oil. They can forget all their propaganda about human rights, democracy, or related values for decades to come. I don't think you'll find anyone outside the US who still believes it. Leave NATO? Why not?

 

[EricDMMiller]

"We need our allies' help to secure the Strait of Hormuz!"

No.

“Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer ‘need,’ or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID!”

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/17/trump-iran-nato-allies-assistance-00831355

Similar in form of argument to the recent exchange with Anthropic.

"We demand that Anthropic let us use Claude for whatever we want because it is so important!"

No.

"We never wanted it anyway and it's unreliable and poses a supply chain risk to the government, so none of our suppliers are allowed to use it."

https://www.anthropic.com/news/where-stand-department-war

 

[EricDMMiller]

UK security adviser attended US-Iran talks and judged deal was within reach

Exclusive: Jonathan Powell thought Tehran’s ‘surprising’ offer on its nuclear programme could prevent rush to war, sources say

www.theguardian.com

The UK saw no compelling evidence of an imminent threat of an Iranian missile attack on Europe, or of Iran securing a nuclear weapon. This is the first time it has become clear that Britain was so closely involved in the talks, and so had good reason to decide whether diplomatic options had been exhausted and a US attack was necessary.

Instead the UK regarded the attack as unlawful and premature since Powell believed the path remained open to a negotiated solution to the long-running issue of how Iran could reassure the US that it was not seeking a nuclear weapon.

 

[fresh_42]

I think that (US-) Americans have a rather false impression of what the rest of the world thinks about them. Here is a prominent statement:

Historian Christopher Clark considers Trump "terrifying".​

"Australian historian Sir Christopher Clark considers the current global political situation very dangerous. A major risk factor is the unpredictable behavior of US President Donald Trump, Clark told the German Press Agency in Cologne. He possesses great power and enormous destructive potential, but is apparently waging war against Iran without a plan. "That is frightening," said Clark, who is also well-known to a wide television audience.

The Iranian government has been a source of instability in the Middle East for decades. It has repeatedly violated human rights against its own people. "However, you can't just eliminate regimes and murder their government officials because they are terrible," criticized the Cambridge history professor. "There are many terrible regimes in the world. Where will it end?"

Clark criticizes Hegseth's brutal communication style

"The Trump administration's brutal communication style is also striking. The rhetoric of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who calls himself 'secretary of war,' is particularly off-putting. The former television commentator has said, among other things, that the war against Iran was never intended to be a fair fight: 'We're hitting them while they're down, and that's exactly how it should be.'"

Clark commented, "No American secretary before him would ever have addressed the public like that. Some say that at least it's honest language and not the same hypocrisy as before. I completely disagree." First, this administration is covering up and obscuring a lot. We probably won't find out what's really happening behind the scenes until much later. And second, a certain degree of hypocrisy is actually preferable. Because it arises when one feels at least fundamentally committed to a code of values, even if one doesn't always live up to it.

By committing to norms, one creates a foundation for collective action. "The current US administration operates from the outset without values and norms. To that I say: Back to the era of hypocrisy, please!"

Clark said he is frequently asked whether the current world situation has parallels with that of 1914, before the outbreak of the First World War. Clark examined the relationships and alliances of the great powers and alliances of that time in his international bestseller "The Sleepwalkers." "The current situation is completely different from that of 1914," he clarified. “For example, we are not dealing with two opposing alliance blocs as we did back then, but with a situation that is difficult to assess and involves many uncertainties.” Another difference is that back then, there was no such clear aggressor as there is today with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Clark believes NATO is weaker than ever.

“One thing that worries me is the dwindling mutual trust within the Western alliance,” Clark said. “NATO looks weaker today than at any other time in its history, primarily, of course, due to the loss of confidence by the United States, especially this president—although a certain cooling of relations was already noticeable under Obama and Biden.”

The weaker NATO cohesion, the more each state has to try to secure itself on its own. “The number of actors is increasing, and with it the complexity and unpredictability of the system as a whole,” Clark analyzed. Total defense spending is currently probably higher than at any other time since the end of the Cold War.

Clark was in Cologne to present his new book, “Scandal in Königsberg,” at the Lit. Cologne literature festival. It deals with a scandal surrounding two Lutheran preachers in the Prussian city during the Biedermeier period in the mid-19th century."


Source: Serious. Liberal weekly newspaper of record.

Krieg gegen den Iran: Historiker Christopher Clark hält Trump für «furchterregend»

Hier finden Sie Informationen zu dem Thema „Krieg gegen den Iran“. Lesen Sie jetzt „Historiker Christopher Clark hält Trump für «furchterregend»“.

www.zeit.de

Format: Unedited take from dpa (German Press Agency).
Translation: Mainly by Google.
Sir Christopher: Famous in Germany for his many TV productions of several documentaries on history. Australian, multi-linguistic, has a History Chair in Cambridge.

 

[EricDMMiller]

Russia is actively supporting Iran in the war against the United States.

MS NOW’s Stephanie Ruhle Says Trump Phone Call Revealed He Has ‘More Trust in Putin’ Than European Allies

Stephanie Ruhle reported reported that Donald Trump has more trust in Russian President Vladimir Putin than in European allies.

www.yahoo.com

I asked about Ukraine helping, and Ukraine supporting, and he said, “They’ve done nothing. Anything [Volodymyr] Zelensky has said as far as what Ukraine has done to help us, he’s just doing for political and PR purposes. They’ve done nothing.” He says Zelensky is very difficult to deal with. He says Zelensky is more difficult to deal with than Putin is. And he said Putin has also shown that he’s not afraid of Europe at this point or our European allies…I would clearly say that he expressed more trust in Putin than he does any of our European allies.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Russia is actively supporting Iran in the war against the United States.

And yet we just funded both of them. The clown show has no ends.

 

[Grinkle]

I wonder what it will end up meaning that the Trump administration is talking to someone and whoever that someone is will not acknowledge it and the administration will not name that person.

Does it mean the administration is concerned that person will be killed if they are known?

Does it mean the administration has some idea that they can legitimize this person as the rightful leader sometime later this week if they can announce their identity at the same time as announcing an agreement?

Does it mean they are talking to someone who will never have any chance of being recognized as an Iranian head of state just to try and undermine the existing regime?

Does it mean nothing - this is all distracting nonsense and Kushner et al are not really talking to anyone? Trump will continue to claim non-existent talks to buy time with the markets and the rest of the world while he gets enough infantry staged to take Kharg or do whatever else he has in mind.

What a disgusting and horrific state of affairs.

 

[EricDMMiller]

Remember, standing near an ICE officer makes you a terrorist. Using bombs to achieve political results is... what, exactly?

‘We negotiate with bombs’: Hegseth boasts even as Trump claims Iran talks underway

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth says the US “negotiates with bombs” in Iran war, while US President Donald Trump claims talks are ongoing and blames Hegseth for starting the war.

www.wionews.com

“The air campaign we’ve conducted was one for the history books,” Hegseth said. “We have a president who, when he sends his warfighters out to fight, he unties their hands to actually go out and destroy the enemy as viciously as possible from moment one.”

He doubled down, saying, “We negotiate with bombs.”

“Never in history has a modern military… been so rapidly and historically obliterated, defeated, from day one with overwhelming firepower,” he said. “You have a choice, as we loiter over the top of Tehran, about your future.”

 

[Rive]

The air campaign we’ve conducted was one for the history books

That's for sure: so far it's the most expensive war ever lost with the fewest losses on the US side.

 

[Grinkle]

so far

A necessary qualifier. All that infantry en-route is going to dis-embark somewhere dangerous I think.

 

[Borg]

A necessary qualifier. All that infantry en-route is going to dis-embark somewhere dangerous I think.

And these days, you just have to watch the betting markets to see when and where.

Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge​

Several accounts on the online platform Polymarket laid bets on a US-Iran ceasefire over the weekend that appeared to show signs of insider knowledge, according to experts.

Eight accounts, all newly created around 21 March, bet a total of nearly $70,000 (£52,000) on there being a ceasefire. They stand to make nearly $820,000 if such a deal is reached before 31 March.

 

[Grinkle]

And these days, you just have to watch the betting markets to see when and where.

I know the PredictIt PolyMarket accounts are anonymous, like BC accounts are, but if that blockchain is viewable, one should be able to track the activity of the specific account that currently has the 97% accuracy rate on predicting US activity in the middle east, even if one doesn't know who owns the account.

Edit: PolyMarket, not PredictIt - sorry.

 

[Grinkle]

track the activity of the specific account

I am learning that the insiders change wallets frequently to further mask themselves - I guess I'm no genius for having had that thought, any serious block-chain better probably looks for highly successful wallets to emulate.

 

[EricDMMiller]

30-40% of the Gulf States' energy infrastructure is destroyed.

Business - France confirms oil crisis, says 30-40 percent of Gulf energy infrastructure destroyed

France's Finance Minister Roland Lescure revealed on Wednesday that between 30 and 40 per cent of Gulf refining capacity has been damaged or destroyed by Iran's retaliatory strikes, leaving a shortage…

www.france24.com

How did this happen in a war the US won 3 weeks ago?

 

[Patxitxi]

"help is on the way"?

Oil prices rise more than 2% after Trump cancels meetings with Iran, tells protesters help is on the way

President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to intervene if the Islamic Republic kills protesters.

www.cnbc.com

What a sinister joke.

 

[Patxitxi]

Of course I assume that bombing schools was accidental, but it shows the usual lack of thinking ahead about possible consequences (or should that be just "thinking") from the current US administration. However, blaming Iran instead of apologising for the unfortunate accident is subhuman.

Did you really, seriously expect any "thinking" ahead of these guys?
And you also expected them to acknowledge their mistake?
Seriously, any "analysis" of the situation has to start on the premises that this guy is a psychopath imbecile who has been given a flamethrower for Christmas.
Only then one will be in the right state of mind to analyze his/their actions.

 

[Grinkle]

I decided not to start another thread with this question, it seems on-topic here in this one.

IMO, the only two courses of action the Trump administration has that would actually impact the situation are -

1. Cease hostilities (or if one credits the cease fire with existing, do not resume hostilities)
2. Invade with ground forces and establish a military base roughly the size of Gaza along the SoH coastline to enforce safe passage

I think continued bombing will do little to change anything away from the status quo - that being the US spending 1B per day and the SoH being impassible and Iran declaring victory and the rest of the world being disgusted.

I think escalated bombing to include civilian infrastructure targets would increase US isolation and do nothing to change Iran's defiance or make the SoH any safer. It would be morally reprehensible and probably a war crime.

Between options 1 and 2, I am completely in favor of option 1.

What does option 1 look like from the perspective of your countries (also asking US folks)? What do you expect other regions might do in the coming 1-2 years in the face of decreased oil supply, if the current situation (Iran controlling SoH passage) turns out to be long lasting?

 

[EricDMMiller]

Israel is escalating the conflict. The US will never stop helping Israel.

I don't realistically see your option 1 being on the table.