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What's happening in Iran
- Context: Civil Rights
- Thread starter Greg Bernhardt
- Start date
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SUMMARY
The ongoing protests in Iran have escalated due to severe inflation, currently at approximately 40%, and other socio-economic issues such as pollution and lack of economic growth. Merchants initially began closing shops in response to these challenges, leading to widespread dissatisfaction with the regime. Experts like Karim Sadjadpour from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace highlight the absence of a clear successor to the Ayatollah, with demonstrators calling for Reza Pahlavi, the former Shah's son. The potential for U.S. intervention raises concerns about foreign influence and its impact on the protests.
PREREQUISITES- Understanding of Iranian socio-political history
- Knowledge of economic indicators, specifically inflation rates
- Familiarity with the role of external influences in domestic protests
- Awareness of key figures in Iranian politics, such as the Ayatollah and Reza Pahlavi
- Research the historical context of the 1979 Iranian Revolution
- Examine the effects of inflation on social unrest in various countries
- Investigate the role of social media and communication blackouts in modern protests
- Analyze the implications of U.S. foreign policy on Middle Eastern stability
This discussion is beneficial for political analysts, historians, and anyone interested in Middle Eastern affairs, particularly those studying the dynamics of protests and regime change in Iran.
To the inpartial observer it is not "probably a war crime" under international law AND the U.S. military code US actions in Iran already constitute a war crime. 5 possible arguments:
1 - Targeting Essential Civilian Infrastructure: President Trump's threats to destroy "every bridge" and "every power plant" in Iran are indiscriminate attacks. Under international law, military targets must be distinguished from civilian objects; attacking infrastructure necessary for civilian survival is prohibited.
2 - Threats Intended to Spread Terror: Making "egregious threats of great destruction" to pressure a government is considered a war crime because the law of war prohibits measures of intimidation whose primary purpose is to sow terror among a civilian population.
3 - Declaration of "No Quarter": Defense Secretary statements that the U.S. would give "no quarter" or "no mercy" are cited as a direct violation. Under both international law and the U.S. military code, it is a war crime to refuse to spare the lives of enemy combatants who surrender or are incapacitated.
4 - Disproportionality and Lack of Distinction: Attacks that result in high civilian casualties (such as the reported strike on a school in Minab that killed over 100 children) are criticized for failing the principle of proportionality. Experts argue that even if a facility has some military use, the "concrete and direct military advantage" must not be outweighed by the civilian harm caused by its destruction.
5 - Incitement to Genocide: Some analysts argue that rhetoric threatening to "obliterate" a "whole civilization" could be construed as incitement to genocide, which is a separate crime under the Genocide Convention.
In regard to Option 1 and 2 option 2 would be a genocide, but option 1 is not acceptable to Israel and (as we most know) Israel is the one calling the shots in this "military excursion."
Now regarding opinions of foreigners most of my compatriots think that the US should be charged levies for extra costs generated by this illegal war:
1 - fuel
2 - fertilizers
3 - shipping cost
4 - cost living
5 - mortgage rates
(and many others)
Finally (and I must say that I am surprised this is so) surprisingly most Spaniards agree that Iran should indeed charge a levy to every ship passing by Hormuz (even though it's illegal) so at least somebody pays for the reconstruction of Iran.
And many of us wonder who is going to pay for the reconstruction of Gaza.
Of course most of them also think that the 10th of thousands of lives lost in Gaza cannot be repaid in any way....
Mod edit: I changed the text color at the end of your post back to white - not sure if you were attempting to bold it or something? It was black text on a black background and not readable. I didn't get an exact color match, that's why it still looks a little different.
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I said probably because these events haven't occurred; I also do not see a scenario where bombing civilian infrastructure in the way Trump described would not be a war crime.
It seems to me this is inevitable and going to be the case for a long time moving forward. It will surely be known as the Trump tax. I even saw a pundit on Bloomberg say that one concession Iran might give the US is to agree to charge the tax in USD. I can easily see Trump spinning that as a great victory for the US, of course right after he lifts all economic sanctions on Iran in order to make charging USD feasible.
Certainly Trump has set precedents for tariff usage that put the US in a position where we don't have any moral high ground if other countries tariff us for reparations or any reason at all, really.
Its not clear to me how Israel's actions might affect Iran's actions at the end of the day if the US pulls back it. It doesn't punish Israel to keep the SoH closed, as far as I know Israel doesn't have the same dependence on oil that major consumers like the US do and major suppliers like Iran does. If Iran does not believe that the US could make Israel stand down then the economically rational thing for them to do is to open the SoH and charge for passage.
You may be correct that Trump simply won't stop if Israel does not stop - I think he's ready to move on and he will, but you could just as well be right, that's me trying to read a person that I have never felt I understood at all.
As far as I know, US is actually net exporter. And while there is still significant import in specific products, through the export the balance can be maintained => whatever happens to the rest of the world due the oil prices and availability will affect US in a very limited way.
Even more so that there are already some rumors that he wants a cut of that tax.
What Israel wants is a 'pacified' neighborhood (Hamas and Hezbollah off the table). Iran is the main supporter of those => Iran gaining victory and financial advantage is just not acceptable, it would turn their gains so far into just another ten year ceasefire.
The Arab League is also fed up with Iran and (mostly under the table) supporting Israel against Iranian assets. This will not change unless the war is no longer acceptable (this point might be close, they are struggling against drones and missiles).
What US wants depends on Trump => utterly unpredictable. He might declare victory by tomorrow and go for Cuba the next day if he feels like that's a good idea for the moment.
As I understand the oil market, which is not very well, the base price of oil is the same for everyone because the entire planet is bidding for the same barrel of oil and it will be sold to the highest bidder. The cost of transportation is $1 - $4 per barrel and is not much different from pipeline / truck or cargo ship, per ChatGPT anyway, so buying oil that is right next to you may save 1 or 2 dollars per barrel in delivery costs but not more than that. If China or the EU is willing to pay $150 per barrel for West Texas crude oil, that is what a US refinery will need to pay to get that same oil afaik.
This is a parody of strategy. Iran won't agree to safe passage through the SoH, so Trump says he's going to keep it closed himself. Take that, Iran.
apnews.com
Trump threatens Strait of Hormuz blockade after US-Iran ceasefire talks end without agreement
President Donald Trump says the U.S. Navy will immediately start a blockade to stop ships from entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz.
apnews.com
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Like most things in the administration, it would be funny if it wasn't so sad.
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You have Harvard, Yale, Berkeley, Cornell, and all you came up with was that?
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The US is now admitting to waging terrorism against the entire world.
"What they have done is engage in this act of economic terrorism against the entire world. As the President showed, two can play at that game."
Vance has defined the category, placed Iran's behavior in it, and announced the US is engaging in the same behavior.
"What they have done is engage in this act of economic terrorism against the entire world. As the President showed, two can play at that game."
Vance has defined the category, placed Iran's behavior in it, and announced the US is engaging in the same behavior.
Wow. Scary. They're not even trying to hide their motivations. I know it's a cheap comparison but it's like the book Hitler wrote while incarcerated for his attempted coup d'etat! How his actions could surprise anyone is a mystery.
The War You’re Not Allowed to See: How the UAE Rewrites the Story of Iranian Strikes (Bellingcat)
Two Waves of Bombing: New Videos Reveal Further Details About Iran School Strike (Bellingcat).
The War You’re Not Allowed to See: How the UAE Rewrites the Story of Iranian Strikes (Bellingcat)
Two Waves of Bombing: New Videos Reveal Further Details About Iran School Strike (Bellingcat).
'pacified'?
Barren is more like it.
Isn't it?
Of course until sionist developed.
Gaza is now done, let's put waste to Lebanon next.
Remember the deal was return all the hostages in exchange to end the occupation?
That's fine, but if this situation lasts then plenty of buyers just won't have actually available oil, regardless the price offered.
It's not about not having oil on the market, it's about that it cannot be delivered.
US is lot less prone of such situation than many other countries.
Apparently, it'll be the Vatican instead
Those behind the WEF and NET ZERO must be waving their arms and hands in glee, from this result in their drive to have an overly managed world economy, directed by a few 'elites', who can rake in billions of $ for themselves while their subjects suffer with inflation. The WEF and socialist followers solution - put a heat pump in every home.
A few analysts are predicting coming widespread famine as farming becomes severely unprofitable and unproductive with the rise in fuel and fertilizer costs. Who gets the blame - the grocery stores, not the government policies.
How much news coverage has been given to the citizen protests in Ireland, an EU member, due to the high fuels prices, of which a large proportion is taxes. The farmer protests disrupted by Irish government bringing in the armed forces and threats of prison. Very similar to the Canadian Trudeau action against the Truck Convoy in Ottawa ( War Measures Act ), due to Covid measures that would have bankrupted them.
Trump's actions in Iran may have been the catalyst to show the fragility of the world economy, its dependance upon cheap energy, the ills of being overly controlled by the corporate mentality, either through a leftist socialist or rightist capitalist methods.
I am not sure how that can happen in the marketplace, but it does seem intuitive that at some point it could possibly happen.
What I mean is, there are clearly sufficient oil tankers in the world to move all the of today's sea-shipped oil through the SoH. If someone is willing to pay for US oil, those tanker can carry that oil instead.
I'm sure its not that simple, but I don't know what the transport bottle neck would be or hard it would be to overcome.
Depending on the buyer, such rerouting would take maybe up to 3-6 months just in travel time. And not many started to look for alternative routes/sources right away... Even now this would look like a quite risky decision (compared to waiting or private negotiations through the blockade).
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Of course that is true but it's there is a considerable difference if the price goes up when you are one of those that sells, or you are one of those that buys.
Then the price subjectively is not "the same" for both parties.
"In 2025, the U.S. cemented its role as a premier global energy exporter, with record-high natural gas production (109 Bcf/d -billion cubic feet per day) and massive LNG shipments, particularly to Europe. While crude oil production hit a record 13.6 million b/d (million barrels per day)... "
And the price in the street is DEFINITIVELY not the same:
As of mid-April 2026, the average price of gasoline (95 octane) in Spain is approx. $6.20-$6.30 per US gallon). In the USA, the average price for regular gasoline has exceeded $4.10 per gallon during the same period.
Incidentally lucky me saw this coming and just bought an electric monster w/449 hp that runs on electricity and our sun does not depend on the madness of foreign billionaires...
But the rest of Europeans are even paying higher prices (often exceeding USD 9–10 per gallon) and getting really pissed off !
Mod edit: Fixed text color
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Try and count the number of lies made by the king of the liars in a single short post.
nypost.com
My take away is that China is livid, planning to arm Iran to the teeth, hopefully with anti-ship hypersonic weapons, and Xi is going to make Trump give him a big fat sloppy blow job if he dares show his face in Beijing.
Trump says China agrees not to send Iran weapons — and predicts Xi will give him 'big, fat hug'
“China is very happy that I am permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz. I am doing it for them, also — And the World,” Trump claimed.
nypost.com
My take away is that China is livid, planning to arm Iran to the teeth, hopefully with anti-ship hypersonic weapons, and Xi is going to make Trump give him a big fat sloppy blow job if he dares show his face in Beijing.
Well, as far as I know China did not and will not deliver 'weapons' (at least in the last decade or so).
...they are just very happily participating in weapon development and eager to provide general techware...
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Well, starting any statement with "Trump says ..." has a confidence level of zero. It has less truth value than an Instagram post.
I looked up data on China's export of weapons. From 2020 to 2024, they mainly exported to Pakistan (63%), followed by Serbia (6.8%). I cannot see how this has changed in the current situation. China's general policy is long-term goals, not stupid ad hoc decisions; pretty much the total opposite of Trump's wild, unplanned decisions. Relations between Iran and Pakistan are volatile. However, China is portraying itself as a mediator. Whether this is sufficient to allow Pakistan to sell Chinese weapons to Iran can be doubted. Another possible connection is: China supports Russia, which supports Iran. I wouldn't bet there were no Chinese weapons exports to Tehran, but if so, then very likely in the dark.
Source: https://de.statista.com/statistik/d...erlaender-von-chinesischen-ruestungsexporten/
I looked up data on China's export of weapons. From 2020 to 2024, they mainly exported to Pakistan (63%), followed by Serbia (6.8%). I cannot see how this has changed in the current situation. China's general policy is long-term goals, not stupid ad hoc decisions; pretty much the total opposite of Trump's wild, unplanned decisions. Relations between Iran and Pakistan are volatile. However, China is portraying itself as a mediator. Whether this is sufficient to allow Pakistan to sell Chinese weapons to Iran can be doubted. Another possible connection is: China supports Russia, which supports Iran. I wouldn't bet there were no Chinese weapons exports to Tehran, but if so, then very likely in the dark.
Source: https://de.statista.com/statistik/d...erlaender-von-chinesischen-ruestungsexporten/
I don't think its in China's best interests for hostilities to continue - they benefit from stability in the Middle East as much or more than the US does. I'd be very surprised if they provide Iran any offensive weaponry that could help them control the SoH or menace shipping in the Gulf.
I'm sure Xi is livid, or whatever passes for livid with him; so is everyone except MAGA. I have never gotten the impression that his emotions dictate his policy, though.
Not a dispute on the writings of yours.
Spain seems to be the only country that has achieved a decent handle on energy,
The spike in fuel costs shows that many of the others do not, or just don't care beyond the empty talking points of the ones in charge to their subjects.
Isn't energy price hike a good thing for the curbing of CO2 emissions? If I know the elementaries of price and demand. As the world is too reliant upon fossil fuels they say. The Iran conflict has given the Net Zero crowd of elites an opportunity right in their lap to explain to their subjects that this is the world we expect you to live in as we jack up energy prices to more than is bearable with taxes and more taxes in the years to come, although it will be a slow burn rather than a shock, so one shouldn't notice.
All these super economists, in which the previous Bank of England Carney includes himself, surely know what they are doing. It's not ever their fault that they get somehow richer and the regular folk get poorer and suffer, right? since they have an easy scapegoat rather than themselves to fling all the blame on.
BTW - Trudeau the younger, a CO2 anti-emission advocate, and his companion flew to attend the Coachella festival, from somewhere, after which flying off to somewhere else for fun and games. Their carbon footprint now challenging that of the Swift girl. Please cut back on driving and eating meat to compensate, so these two can keep on enjoying life - sacrifices have to be made.
Agree 100% on your comments.
Unfortunately not everyone has the funds to buy electric cars.
But we are getting there and I believe all European countries, one way or the other, are subsidizing the purchase of electric cars although not near enough for the middle classes to be able to afford the investment easily.
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I know how the Mullahs can end this war. Take any prayer to end the war, and then replace all mentions of Mohammed, you know, praised be his wisdom, blessed be his soul, hailed be his words, and so on, with the Trump.
Hah. Or like Golda Meir said (I've mentioned this before i know):
"We'll have peace when they love their children more than they hate us."
Some potential pitfalls I think - if this action were to be interpreted as drawing a comparison between Trump and Mohammed, they might need to issue Fatwa's for their own assassinations.
Hah. What a mess!
Indeed - never fear, though - peace is at hand, as Nixon said once about the Viet Nam 'conflict'.
Live updates: Iran negotiators agree to extend ceasefire and start nuclear talks, pending Trump signoff
The Justice Department has opened an investigation into whether E. Jean Carroll lied during the course of civil litigation against President Donald Trump, according to a person familiar.
apnews.com
Yeah, and that went really well!
Being serious, I wonder if the current situation is more or less the new normal and starting to be stable, if it counts as peace.
1. Traffic through the SoH essentially blocked
2. Sporadic violence occurring in the Persian Gulf followed by statements that the ceasefire was not violated
3. Weekly claims that a deal is pending from the US
4. Weekly "not so fast" responses from various Iranian spokespeople
5. Oil at 90 - 110 per barrel
6. The US with half its navy camped out in the Gulf
Just seems like the world is getting used to it and starting to work around the SoH - it wouldn't surprise me if in the next 6 months we'll be seeing news stories breaking about the overland oil routes Iran started using to get oil to China and India.
That's 100% speculation on my part - I haven't seen anyone claiming the current situation is becoming stable. Seems to me it could well last as long as Trump is president, war powers acts, if any ever pass, notwithstanding.
1. Traffic through the SoH essentially blocked
2. Sporadic violence occurring in the Persian Gulf followed by statements that the ceasefire was not violated
3. Weekly claims that a deal is pending from the US
4. Weekly "not so fast" responses from various Iranian spokespeople
5. Oil at 90 - 110 per barrel
6. The US with half its navy camped out in the Gulf
Just seems like the world is getting used to it and starting to work around the SoH - it wouldn't surprise me if in the next 6 months we'll be seeing news stories breaking about the overland oil routes Iran started using to get oil to China and India.
That's 100% speculation on my part - I haven't seen anyone claiming the current situation is becoming stable. Seems to me it could well last as long as Trump is president, war powers acts, if any ever pass, notwithstanding.