Warren Buffett: Tariffs are ‘an act of war’

[jack action]

A decrease in the world GDP might have some unintended (by Trump) environmental benefits. I hadn't thought of that at all before reading your post, even though I suspect you mean it tongue-in-cheek, its an interesting and not-depressing thought.

I also think about how Trump is currently destroying globalization. It used to be the left that was promoting the anti-globalization movement. I'm always wondering if they are Trump supporters now.

 

[fresh_42]

I also think about how Trump is currently destroying globalization. It used to be the left that was promoting the anti-globalization movement. I'm always wondering if they are Trump supporters now.

I don't think that the opposite of globalization is protectionism. "Buy local" is a good idea even without ideological connotations. The problem is, it does not work. The farmer next door may offer some vegetables, eggs, and milk, but that doesn't cover even closely what can be bought in grocery stores or replace the global markets for US-American farmers who produce for exports.

And now let's talk about the world's dependence on Taiwanese chips! The efforts made so far to reduce this dependence must be described as rather meager. Maybe this will prepare us all for another Carrington event.

 

[EricDMMiller]

A decrease in the world GDP might have some unintended (by Trump) environmental benefits. I hadn't thought of that at all before reading your post, even though I suspect you mean it tongue-in-cheek, its an interesting and not-depressing thought.

No, I did mean it honestly. If there is anything good that can come from this, it might be people realizing they don't need so much plastic garbage in their lives (and brains and testicles).

 

[morrobay]

Interesting thesis, for early 19th Century

That's about 100 years off. The very prosperous postwar period, 1950s is the model here. That period ended when manufacturing companies took the easy/greedy way out. That is instead of upgrading production physically as well as worker skills leading to efficient production /lower prices .They offshored their manufacturing mostly to China. I
think it is a good idea to decouple from China. On a side note these tariffs are fiscal revenue. https://www.magzter.com/stories/newspaper/Bangkok-Post/CAN-TARIFFS-REVIVE-US-MANUFACTURING

 

[EricDMMiller]

The Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors has clarified that the tariffs are a mafia-style protection racket shakedown of the entire world:

CEA Chairman Steve Miran Hudson Institute Event Remarks

Today I’d like to discuss the United States’ provision of what economists call “global public goods,” for the entire world. First, the United States

www.whitehouse.gov

The best outcome is one in which America continues to create global peace and prosperity and remain the reserve provider, and other countries not only participate in reaping the benefits, but they also participate in bearing the costs.
...
What forms can that burden sharing take? There are many options, here are a few ideas:

First, other countries can accept tariffs on their exports to the United States without retaliation, providing revenue to the U.S. Treasury to finance public goods provision. Critically, retaliation will exacerbate rather than improve the distribution of burdens and make it even more difficult for us to finance global public goods.

Second, they can stop unfair and harmful trading practices by opening their markets and buying more from America;

Third, they can boost defense spending and procurement from the U.S., buying more U.S.-made goods, and taking strain off our servicemembers and creating jobs here;

Fourth, they can invest in and install factories in America. They won’t face tariffs if they make their stuff in this country;

Fifth, they could simply write checks to Treasury that help us finance global public goods.

 

[dlu]

Statistics are whatever one makes of them.
If this US data set is reliable:

Manufacturing - 30% of GDP in 1953, and 10% in 2024.
Agricuture - 7 % of GDP in 1953, and only 1% in 2024.
Services - 40% of GDP in 1953, jump to 78% in 2024. <--The big gainer of economic restructuring.
( Services here would include anything from retail to high finance to health, ... , so the qualification of 'low paying' jobs in not all quite a reasonable assumption - white collar vs yellow color ).
( Although one can pick out a few companies in the service industry that are lackards for 'fair' wage, in the pursuit of 'cheaper is better, but that is an ideology thing worth discussion in a round table ).

Manufacturing Descent - American GDP/Capita change by sector (1953-2024)

In just over 70 years, America has transformed from a manufacturing powerhouse into a service-dominated economy—services now make up 71% of GDP, nearly dou…

www.voronoiapp.com

Dataset
Sector 1953 % of GDP 2024 % of GDP 1953 GDP ($T, adj. to 2024 USD) 2024 GDP ($T) 1953 GDP per capita ($, 2024 USD) 2024 GDP per capita ($)
Manufacturing 30 11 1.38 3.08 8625 30.61% 9166.666667 10.00%
Agriculture 7 1 0.322 0.28 2012.5 7.14% 833.3333333 0.91%
Services 40 78 1.84 21.84 11500 40.82% 65000 70.91%
Government 13 13 0.598 3.64 3737.5 13.27% 10833.33333 11.82%
Construction 5 4 0.23 1.12 1437.5 5.10% 3333.333333 3.64%
Mining/Oil & Gas 3 3 0.138 0.84 862.5 3.06%

Had the economy not shifted to the service industry from the 1950's to the now, based in doubling that sectors share of the GDP, agriculture and manufacturing would be representing a larger share of the 2024 GDP - rough guestimate of towards the 1953 % value of 7% and 30 %.

2023 data from another

Output by major industry sector

Output by major industry sector

www.bls.gov

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

I fear that major countries will capitulate and reward Trump for his mafia tactics. We're already seeing Japan, Vietnam, and some EU countries sending negotiators.

 

[EricDMMiller]

104% baby.

https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/policy/tariff-tensions-escalate-as-white-house-hits-china-with-104-hike

China will just cut off exports to the US. Good luck making a manufacturing base when you have no ability to manufacture even the simplest parts necessary to build a factory that manufactures anything.

 

[phinds]

China will just cut off exports to the US. Good luck making a manufacturing base when you have no ability to manufacture even the simplest parts necessary to build a factory that manufactures anything.

I don't think it will come to it but it COULD get a lot worse than that. China could immediately cut off all exports of rare earths and critical minerals, AND it could cash in all $780 Billion it holds in US Government Bonds.

 

[fresh_42]

It already started.

According to several media reports, Audi will no longer deliver new cars to the US for the time being. The automaker, which has a plant in Neckarsulm (Heilbronn district), is reacting to the Trump administration's tariffs. According to the report, 37,000 vehicles are still in stock at dealers in the US that are not affected by the tariffs. They are still expected to be sold. "Automobilwoche" first reported this. Audi has not yet commented.

Audi stoppt Exporte in die USA: Mitarbeiter sind trotzdem zuversichtlich

Audi hat alle Exporte in die USA gestoppt. Das Ganze ist eine Reaktion auf Autozölle, die US-Präsident Trump erlassen hat.

www.swr.de

 

[EricDMMiller]

I don't think it will come to it but it COULD get a lot worse than that. China could immediately cut off all exports of rare earths and critical minerals

They already did that.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china-hits-back-us-tariffs-with-rare-earth-export-controls-2025-04-04/

 

[morrobay]

I would ask who has been over tariffing who ?

Moderator note - removed screen shots, the info being referred to is now in post 135.

 

[Grinkle]

@morrobay What's the source of that, and the context? The China number looks to be only the latest addition to tariffs, not the total tariff. Is that what the table is?

 

[morrobay]

@morrobay What's the source of that, and the context? The China number looks to be only the latest addition to tariffs, not the total tariff. Is that what the table is?

Reddit. Then do search for reciprocal tariffs chart.

Moderator note - removed screen shot of links that can be found by following the link in post 138.

 

[Grinkle]

Here is a link to a reference with more context around the numbers.

See the full list of reciprocal tariffs by country from Trump's "Liberation Day" chart

President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on about 90 countries, including China and the European Union. Here's the list.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[fresh_42]

How can we trust such a source? How is it not simple propaganda? "Don't trust a statistic you haven't faked yourself!"

reddit is not what I would call reliable. And "then do a search" isn't acceptable either. You claim it, you have to provide serious links, not the other way around.

 

[Grinkle]

@morrobay No more screenshots as references, please. Use links like everyone else.

 

[Grinkle]

Brief lock.

Edit - moved a post with a Reddit link containing discussion of tariff to an existing thread with other such links. Lets keep this thread valid-news-sources only, thanks.

G

Economy Thread 'Tariff assessments from elsewhere on the internet'

Apr 3, 2025

I've long wished there was a social sciences version of PF. Maybe there is one somewhere and I just haven't been able to find it.

This is the best resource I've been able to find for informative mostly objective discussion from economists, at least the top level comments are reviewed and approved, the follow on discussion varies from good to terrible as one might expect.

• Grinkle
• Replies: 5
• Forum: Global & International Politics

• 

Unlocking.

 

[Klystron]

Washington Post digital edition headline story on Trump trade wars.

Talking points on 104% tariffs:

• With a Feb. 1 executive order, Trump imposed a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods, saying it was punishment for Beijing’s lack of progress in stopping the flow of fentanyl and precursor chemicals to the United States.
• Beijing responded with a 15 percent levy on imports of U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas, as well as a 10 percent tariff on agricultural equipment and crude oil.
• At the end of February, Trump announced an additional 10 percent tax on Chinese goods, again citing the opioid epidemic. Beijing, which insists that this is a U.S. public health issue, imposed a 15 percent duty on imports of American farm products including chicken, pork and soy — a move designed to inflict pain in Trump-supporting agricultural states.
• In his “Liberation Day” tariff blitz, Trump imposed a further 34 percent tariff on all Chinese goods, to come into effect April 9, taking the blanket tariff to 54 percent.
• China responded two days later by levying a 34 percent blanket tariff on all products from the United States and condemned the Trump administration’s “unilateral bullying.” It also further restricted exports of rare earth minerals, blacklisted a slew of American companies and filed a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization.
• Trump said Monday that if Beijing did not promptly withdraw the blanket measure, he would increase the duty on all Chinese goods by a further 50 points, taking the minimum tariff to 104 percent.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/04/08/trump-tariffs-china-begin/

Message me if link does not work for you. WaPo gives 10 free stories a month to non-subscribers.

 

[EricDMMiller]

I would ask who has been over tariffing who ?

Moderator note - removed screen shots, the info being referred to is now in post 135.

Those dumb tables show the trade deficit that the US has with the other nations. Not their tariffs on US goods. It has been discussed thoroughly.

The misunderstanding breaking the global economy

Trump believes that if the US has a trade deficit with a country, they’re “beating” us. Huh?

www.vox.com

Three Points on Trump’s “Reciprocal” Tariffs

Beginning on April 9, the United States will impose country-specific “reciprocal” tariffs targeting 57 named countries, with rates reaching as high as 50 percent. At a minimum, each country will pay a 10 percent tariff, which went into effect on April 5.

www.csis.org

Despite being labeled as “reciprocal,” these rates have no direct relationship with the published tariff schedules of other nations and were calculated by referencing the trade deficit that the United States has with each nation. Simply put, the formula employed by the administration is as follows:

Reciprocal Tariff (%) = U.S. Trade Deficit with Country / U.S. Imports from Country

This result has then been cut in half to produce what the White House calls a “discounted reciprocal tariff” for each nation.

It has already been discussed in this thread:

Economy Post in thread 'Warren Buffett: Tariffs are ‘an act of war’'

Apr 3, 2025

By the way, the idiotic math I alluded to in my earlier post is literally:

trade deficit ÷ imports

Client Challenge

Edit:

Labeling this approach as "reciprocal" tariffs is fundamentally misleading because genuine reciprocity implies balanced, proportionate exchanges negotiated bilaterally or multilaterally. In contrast, this method mechanically imposes unilateral penalties based solely on a simplistic arithmetic ratio, without mutual consent or economic equivalence.


This is not reciprocity. It's a punitive, arbitrary calculation...

• EricDMMiller

• 

You don't understand what you are talking about, you use bad sources, and you argue in bad faith. You grasp at straws for anything that justifies your precious position and validates your political leaders.

 

[gleem]

The GOP's revered president on tariffs, or is it formally revered president?

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Trump tweets he's doing a 90 day pause for countries that reached out to him for negotiation. Added to China's tariff.

 

[phinds]

Stock market shot up like a rocket on the news.

 

[fresh_42]

Trump tweets he's doing a 90 day pause for countries that reached out to him for negotiation. Added to China's tariff.

F60.8. That explains everything.

 

[EricDMMiller]

Trump successfully brought manufacturing back to the U.S. in just three days. Now they can let most of their other trading partners try and compete with the factories he has readily built. MAGA!

 

[dlu]

If you do believe it, do you think Trump would stop at using it as a wedge issue, ie spend 4 years saying "if they do even one more thing I'm going in" but never actually intend to "go in", or do you think Trump actually believes invasion and annexation is viable?

I missed this one, so here goes.

If you mean militarily going in then a BIG NO. WHY?
Economically going in, - US and Canada are already intertwined, so that is already a done deal, so to speak.
If you meant politically, - there are some sources of friction, as there has always been.

Trumps quip was meant to antagonize Trudeau, who is now long gone.
The 'governor' is now gone, and no more 51st state thing.
Trudeau, if you remember diplomatically snubbed Trump at the G7 2018 summit in Canada by
1. started a meeting without waiting for Trump to arrive, even if Trump was running late.
2. Trump exited the conference, and quite soon after, while Trump was still in the air, Trudeau held a press conference about the declaration, yet nitpicking the tariff agenda of Trump.

Trudeau had the bad mental state of thinking always he was the most important person in the room.
Diplomatic faux pas guy Trudeau was. India, China would have stories to tell.

While the 51st state thing is antagonizing, Ford showed his dumbness by his screeching about it - tough man politics that backfired on him too.

 

[dlu]

A decrease in the world GDP might have some unintended (by Trump) environmental benefits. I hadn't thought of that at all before reading your post, even though I suspect you mean it tongue-in-cheek, its an interesting and not-depressing thought.

Carbon tariffs coming you way soon.

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism

The CBAM will initially apply to imports of certain goods and selected precursors whose production is carbon intensive and at most significant risk of carbon leakage: cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen.

taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu

 

[fresh_42]

I missed this one, so here goes.

If you mean militarily going in then a BIG NO. WHY?
Economically going in, - US and Canada are already intertwined, so that is already a done deal, so to speak.
If you meant politically, - there are some sources of friction, as there has always been.

Trumps quip was meant to antagonize Trudeau, who is now long gone.
The 'governor' is now gone, and no more 51st state thing.
Trudeau, if you remember diplomatically snubbed Trump at the G7 2018 summit in Canada by
1. started a meeting without waiting for Trump to arrive, even if Trump was running late.
2. Trump exited the conference, and quite soon after, while Trump was still in the air, Trudeau held a press conference about the declaration, yet nitpicking the tariff agenda of Trump.

Trudeau had the bad mental state of thinking always he was the most important person in the room.
Diplomatic faux pas guy Trudeau was. India, China would have stories to tell.

While the 51st state thing is antagonizing, Ford showed his dumbness by his screeching about it - tough man politics that backfired on him too.

So you are saying that people should bow their heads when a narcissist is around? That didn't work well for Chamberlain, didn't it?

 

[dlu]

So you are saying that people should bow their heads when a narcissist is around? That didn't work well for Chamberlain, didn't i

Chamberlain ?
The present situation was one narcissist vs another. Both narcissists testing who has bigger hands.

 

[fresh_42]

Chamberlain ?

Neville Chamberlain, 1938.

The present situation was one narcissist vs another. Both narcissists testing who has bigger hands.

I don't know whether your assessment of Trudeau is correct. It is obvious that Trump is a narcissist though. All I know is that appeasement politics does not work. It didn't work for Chamberlain and it doesn't work against Putin. Why should Trump be any different? You basically say that others should kind of worship him, and I do not agree with that view. We simply don't know what will come next. Today's worshippers are tomorrow's dependents.