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What's going to happen to Ukraine?

  • Context: Ukraine 
  • Thread starter Thread starter phinds
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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on the geopolitical implications of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, particularly in the context of European military readiness and American involvement. Participants express concern over the EU's reliance on U.S. military support, noting that Europe has significantly fewer troops compared to Russia. The conversation highlights Ukraine's effective military strategies, including the use of drones and targeting Russian oil infrastructure, which are contributing to Russia's economic decline. The potential for increased European militarization and NATO expansion in response to Russian aggression is also emphasized.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of NATO's role in European security
  • Familiarity with military strategies involving drones
  • Knowledge of the economic impacts of warfare, particularly regarding oil exports
  • Awareness of historical context surrounding post-WWII European defense policies
NEXT STEPS
  • Research the current state of NATO troop deployments in Europe
  • Explore the effectiveness of drone warfare in modern conflicts
  • Investigate the economic consequences of sanctions on Russia's oil industry
  • Examine historical precedents for military alliances and their evolution post-WWII
USEFUL FOR

This discussion is beneficial for geopolitical analysts, military strategists, policymakers, and anyone interested in the dynamics of European security and the implications of the Ukraine conflict on global stability.

phinds

phinds

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Will Europe be able to keep Ukraine out of Russian hands if America pulls out entirely (as we have pretty much done at this point) ?

Would they even be WILLING to do that, given that it will likely be quite expensive?

I'd love to hear from some of our international members.
 
Do we have a choice? At least we do not take advantage of Russia's war like a certain nation does by blackmailing Ukraine like a robber baron.
 
This sounds a bit shocking and disturbing that the EU doesn't have more troops available. How can this be?
kyivindependent.com

Europe struggles to find troops for Ukraine's 'deterrence force,' the Times reports

European nations would struggle to deploy even 25,000 troops to Ukraine as part of a proposed multinational “deterrence” force, far short of the 64,000-strong target suggested by U.K. defense officials, the Times reported on April 30 citing undisclosed European defense sources.
kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com
 
Greg Bernhardt said:
This sounds a bit shocking and disturbing that the EU doesn't have more troops available. How can this be?
kyivindependent.com

Europe struggles to find troops for Ukraine's 'deterrence force,' the Times reports

European nations would struggle to deploy even 25,000 troops to Ukraine as part of a proposed multinational “deterrence” force, far short of the 64,000-strong target suggested by U.K. defense officials, the Times reported on April 30 citing undisclosed European defense sources.
kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com
Click to expand...
Because since WWII they have overly depended on American protection. Even today, 70 years after WWII we STILL have 84,000 troops in Europe. That's been a bone of contention for many years among our politicians.
 
Wow. Here's a startling graph from the link Greg just provided:

1746402990116.webp

America, by contrast, has 2,860,000 troops in total.

EDIT: the 2,860,000 number seems suspect. I now see several lower estimates.
 
Guess I'm late to find this thread.

I came here looking for some place to post a video on Ukraine and this seemed the most relevant. (Didn't feel like starting a new one.)
I watch a bunch of videos on Ukraine which are more informative than main steam news.

The question of how would Europe do if Russia attacked them or if Ukraine fell to them seems pretty obviously answered.
As it is Ukraine is kicking Putin's ass in many ways. They never achieved their goals of taking over the country. They are losing many more on the battle field. They are being out innovated.
Now that Ukraine has started attacking Russian infrastructure, along with embargoes and stuff, Russia's economy is well on its way to tanking. Their oil infrastructure has lost about 1/5 to 1/4 of its capacity in the last month of month and a half.
Purges are going on. The higher society is based on corruption so money for the military does not do as much as it might.

Putin has been flying drones and now jets over Baltic nations recently. There are said to be 100,000 Russian troops near the Baltic nations.
On the other hand the perceived increase in Russian threats to Europe have driven more European nations to join NATO/OTAN (I like the palindrome, definitely something Russia did not want to happen. Finland (with a long border with Russia and close to St. Petersburg) with a long history of wars with Russia, along with the Baltic states have become increasingly more militarized.
While losing a war to Ukraine badly, it would not be smart to start another one with a large opponent with better arms (that would be NATO/OTAN).

The Ukrainians are destroying Russia's ability to export oil which is the basis of most of their national income.
They can not make or import many parts they need to maintain/repair things for oil production or electronics.
Their economy is going to crash and Putin will probably not last.

Trump is a reflection of Putin whom he clearly admires. Closest thing to Hitler I guess. In a way, Putin's and Trump's fates may (hopefully) be tied together. Two losers in the long run.
Russia is the kind of country that Trump would lead us to. A society based on corruption but unable to function efficiently.

Video:
This is mostly about the amazing effectiveness of drones in the Ukrainians war, which has become a test bed for military technological innovation.
It also makes other statements about the war which seem in line with with I've heard.

Some of its production valves are cheesy but I think the information is good.

I don't understand why more of this information is not on the main stream national news (sad :().

I think I'll post some more videos on more strategic level things later.
There are lots of daily video series on various aspects of the Ukrainian war.
 
@BillTre I haven't watched the video you linked to, I intend to, but my question to you is not around the specific video (I don't think so, anyway).

How do you assess the reliability of conclusions drawn in such videos - how do you distinguish between objective analysis and pro-Ukranian propaganda? I am not commenting on the video you linked, just asking the general question.

BillTre said:
I don't understand why more of this information is not on the main stream national news
Click to expand...
One potential reason is that the videos are not independently verifiable.
 
I think the analysis is quite simple. Putin basically considers the former soviet union as Russian territory, especially those who speak a language similar to Russian. He controls Belarus and Kazakhstan, and tried the same with Ukraine, but failed. Hence, he called the regime that the Ukrainians established Nazis and started a war. The Nazi narrative is important for selling this war, which he carefully called a special operation, to the Russian population by referencing their fight in WWII, which is called the Great Patriotic War in Russia.

The actual state of this war cannot be independently verified. Maybe with the exception of American intelligence, but I am completely uncertain which side benefits from that. Probably rather the Russians than the Ukrainians these days. However, we don't have access to such information. All we have is a rough idea of the front lines.

The Ukrainian goal is to drive the Russians off their entire territory. A goal I think that is unachievable, simply because of the available resources on each side.

The Russian goal is either to establish a pro-Russian regime in Ukraine, like in Belarus, or to keep this war going. It blocks Ukraine's wish to join NATO, and also strongly hinders its ability to join the EU. An ongoing war is therefore in Russia's interest, not any peace deal whatsoever.

Ukraine's only chance besides surrender is that we make this war as expensive as possible for Russia, and even more for the ruling oligarchy. That worked in the Cold War, but it takes decades.
 
Grinkle said:
How do you assess the reliability of conclusions drawn in such videos - how do you distinguish between objective analysis and pro-Ukranian propaganda? I am not commenting on the video you linked, just asking the general question.
Click to expand...
Good question, not easy.
My approach is to look at a lot of videos from a lot of sources and understand that Putin is always self-serving in anything he says.
Although it is possible that I am overly optimistic about some things, similar information from multiple sources is encouraging.

I will be keeping my eye out for what look to me like reliable reports on the state of the Russian economy, their crumbling armed forces, and the overall weakening of their country unity.

Grinkle said:
One potential reason is that the videos are not independently verifiable.
Click to expand...
Many are independently verifiable due to multiple non-government observers reporting what they see and make videos of (like attacks on oil production facilities and destroyed military equipment. There is a well established organization (OSINT) that collects pictures and counts losses.

These videos are WAY more independently verifiable than almost any of the self-serving statements form the Russians that are often accepted by the media without question.
 
Here is a video from a guy who puts out videos often more than once a day.
He is pretty measured in what he says:


This video is focused on Ukrainians drones shooting down Russian drones with surprising effectiveness, blowing up some more oil refineries, and Russia's inability to get enough people from their own country for their army. They seem to want to have a multi-national army.
 
Here is a video on the really crappy state of the Russian military:



Pfarrer is a former navy SEAL.
Smart has done graduate work on the Soviets and Russia and works out of Ukraine.
 
Video on:
How is the Russian air force doing and how did it get that way?
Jason Smart interviews Danus Davydov on this

 
Russia's military incompetence is showing again:
  • One of their corvettes ran into a smallish tanker, damaging both.
  • One of their subs is leaking some fuel-like substance into its hold. There is concern it may combust in some way (boom).
 
Greg Bernhardt said:
This is a minor bit of good news
www.reuters.com

Moldova's pro-EU party wins pivotal election in setback for Russia

The surprisingly strong performance by President Maia Sandu's Party of Action and Solidarity against the Patriotic Bloc was a relief for the government and its European partners, who accused Moscow of seeking to influence the vote.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
Click to expand...

On first glance, yes. The majority of Moldovans are basically Romanians, so there is a reason for the similarity of their flags. Moldavia has a territory in its north, Transnistria, which, according to the new Russian narrative, "Russia is where Russians live", a permanent threat to Moldova. From Wikipedia:
The population of Transnistria is declining sharply. According to the 1989 Soviet census, approximately 700,000 people still lived in this region, of whom 39.9% were Moldovans, 25.5% were Russians, and 28.3% were Ukrainians.
Click to expand...

It is the region that is most likely to be occupied or attacked by Russia.

Furthermore, a new far-right party (5.6%) entered the parliament. They are allied with Romanian right-wing movements, and they demand a reunification with Romania.

European politics is complicated and cannot be understood independently of history. Even a small, impoverished country, largely dependent on agriculture, can cause a war. Remember that WW I started with an assassination in Serbia.
 
The differences in the rate on innovation in Russian and Ukraine (leading to Russia falling behind), based on the way the two societies are structured and operate:

 
The French took a Russian shadow fleet tanker they think has been involved with the drone probing of Baltic and other coastal NATO countries.
Background on recent drone activity.
 
Russia is losing badly in many ways.
By attacking Ukraine and not winning they have marched themselves into a situation where their economy is being destroyed and they can not do anything about it.
The war has turned out to be a war of innovation in which the Russians are increasingly falling behind in and that they can not win.

Ukraine probably only has to survive a few months more of attacks before Russia falls apart.

 
BillTre said:
Ukraine probably only has to survive a few months more of attacks before Russia falls apart.
Click to expand...
Yeah I think this is a very wishful take. Russia will lean more it's dark allies who like its cheap and plentiful oil. I'm sure NK has a hundred thousand more soldiers they can spare in a pinch.
 
phinds said:
I think projections of Russian economic collapse in the near future are wildly unrealistic. I'd be happy to be wrong about that but I think Putin can maintain control for the foreseeable future. We shall see ...
Click to expand...
Greg Bernhardt said:
Yeah I think this is a very wishful take. Russia will lean more it's dark allies who like its cheap and plentiful oil. I'm sure NK has a hundred thousand more soldiers they can spare in a pinch.
Click to expand...

Oil is short and Winter is coming!
 
Greg Bernhardt said:
Yeah I think this is a very wishful take. Russia will lean more it's dark allies who like its cheap and plentiful oil. I'm sure NK has a hundred thousand more soldiers they can spare in a pinch.
Click to expand...

Putin has recently mobilized another 136,000 men. Lives don't mean much to him, so he doesn't have to rely on North Koreans.
 

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