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What's going to happen to Ukraine?

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on the geopolitical implications of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, particularly in the context of European military readiness and American involvement. Participants express concern over the EU's reliance on U.S. military support, noting that Europe has significantly fewer troops compared to Russia. The conversation highlights Ukraine's effective military strategies, including the use of drones and targeting Russian oil infrastructure, which are contributing to Russia's economic decline. The potential for increased European militarization and NATO expansion in response to Russian aggression is also emphasized.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of NATO's role in European security
  • Familiarity with military strategies involving drones
  • Knowledge of the economic impacts of warfare, particularly regarding oil exports
  • Awareness of historical context surrounding post-WWII European defense policies
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  • Research the current state of NATO troop deployments in Europe
  • Explore the effectiveness of drone warfare in modern conflicts
  • Investigate the economic consequences of sanctions on Russia's oil industry
  • Examine historical precedents for military alliances and their evolution post-WWII
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This discussion is beneficial for geopolitical analysts, military strategists, policymakers, and anyone interested in the dynamics of European security and the implications of the Ukraine conflict on global stability.

Yet he does rely on North Koreans as well as other people from other countries that they trick into their army.
They are rapidly running out of armor, ammo, and gas/oil.

There are already rumors of coup attempts, purges, and unrest in the eastern areas where they have been getting a lot of their troops.

There is a tension for them between getting more troops for fighting and pissing people off in the only areas they care about, the Moscow and St. Pete areas.
 
Putin's government is beginning to fall apart. The Russian basis for political power is in the corruption they can take advantage of. (No one is going to stop them in Russia.)
Russia's economy (and the corrupt official's ability to profit from corruption) is bring reduced by strategic Ukrainian unpiloted air attacks (drones and missiles). on their economic and supply soft spots (oil production (the basis for their economy) and their railroad system (which does a large share of transportation over the vast Russian distances)).
Purges are occurring over who controls the various fields of corruption.

Or so says Jason Smart.
Here's his video:
 
Gerdes's analysis of Timothy Snyder's analysis of what the situation is in Ukraine now.



Waiting for Russia to break.
 
Moscow/London – After President Donald Trump ended US aid to Ukraine in its defensive war against Russia, the so-called "coalition of the willing" took its place. France and the United Kingdom assumed leadership of the countries continuing to support Kyiv. The NATO member state of Great Britain has apparently now designated Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin as its new public enemy number one.

The rivalry between Russia and Great Britain goes back a long way. But the war in Ukraine has driven relations to a new low. Instead of the US, it is London that sees Moscow as the "preferred enemy image in the propaganda war," writes the British newspaper The Guardian.

Source: https://www.fnp.de/politik/nicht-me...nien-staatsfeind-nummer-eins-zr-94041541.html

I am still wondering about any initiatives to end this war. Am I the only one who sees that ending the war is not an option for Russia? The problem with it is that gaining territory by means of war is again on the international agenda if we stop supporting Ukraine. Many candidates are waiting to be conquered and occupied:

Taiwan, Panama, Greenland, Moldavia, Georgia, the Baltic countries, Finland, the Kuril islands, and not to forget Antarctica and the Middle East.
 
When the USSR fell apart , I was hoping the EU would become a separate big power to better balance the Russian influence. This could have happened long ago but didn't, probably because of the lack o a perceived need (no Russian threat).
The current situation more closely approximates what I was hoping for.

Although Russia continues to threaten its neighbors, it is really a crumbling power. Its economy is fücked and getting more so.
Its military is like maybe the 20th best army in the world and is running out of gas and ammo.
Its navy is falling apart. Kaliningrad wants out.
Purges are sweeping through the Kremlin.
Even the oligarchs are fleeing.
Its threats against its neighbors now sound hollow.
 
When the USSR fell apart , I was hoping the EU would become a separate big power to better balance the Russian influence. This could have happened long ago but didn't, probably because of the lack o a perceived need (no Russian threat).

No, that is not quite exact. There have been a lot of, e.g., regular German-Russian consultations with the long-term goal to intensify the relations between Russia and the EU, based on economics, not occupation. But who was it on the Russian side to conduct the negotiations? It was Putin. And here is what you have to understand: Putin was a nobody within the big KGB organization. He grew up as an intelligence agent, he was educated as an intelligence agent, and he thinks as an intelligence agent. An agent of the Cold War era, to be precise. This is similar to other nobodies, whom history swept into leading positions: Hitler, Trump, or Berlusconi. All of a sudden, they weren't nobodies anymore. Qua office. They are still the same narrow-minded, stupid people they had been before.

This project you're missing simply fell victim to the wrong personnel. Russia could have become a close partner, if not even a member of the EU. Instead, it still dreams of great Soviet times, the same as the British still dream of the Empire, which is why they truely left the EU.
 
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Putin's war chest is emptying: Russia's banks in dire straits.​


The war economy is faltering: Declining deposits from the population are leading to a looming banking crisis. Propaganda attempts are increasingly failing.

Moscow – According to Ukrainian sources, a banking crisis is imminent in Russia. This news was disseminated on Sunday (November 16) by the Ukrainian state anti-propaganda institution, the "Center for Combating Disinformation." President Volodymyr Zelenskyy established this center to fight the spread of Russian disinformation.

The center has now announced via Telegram that households and businesses in Russia have been withdrawing more money from banks than they are depositing for an extended period. "Currently, the banks have already lost 1 trillion rubles," the statement reads. This estimate corresponds to a capital outflow of 10.6 billion euros. The figures are not confirmed by Russia and cannot be independently verified.

...
Source: https://www.fnp.de/wirtschaft/putin...nken-in-schwerer-bedraengnis-zr-94043028.html (automatically translated by Google Chrome, option: translate to English)

Comment: I belong to the people who do not argue with ideologies when economic reasoning is sufficient. Climate change? I don't care. Look at the balances of publicly traded reinsurrance companies, e.g., Munich Re.
How does Trump's politics affect the US-American investments? Well, it's too early to have figures for 2025. Let's have a look at his first term:
Screenshot-2025-09-10-154239.webp

Source: https://globalbusiness.org/foreign-direct-investment-in-the-united-states-2025/#TopInvestors

Those figures do not lie. I don't care about propaganda; I prefer looking at economic data. In this respect, I hope the Ukrainians are right. The article is worth reading.
 
Comment: I belong to the people who do not argue with ideologies when economic reasoning is sufficient.

[...]

Those figures do not lie. I don't care about propaganda; I prefer looking at economic data. In this respect, I hope the Ukrainians are right. The article is worth reading.

Frighteningly, people's motivations do indeed come down to economics. It takes a really tanking economy to mobilize the masses. When hunger is staring you in the eyes things rapidly get real!
 
Frighteningly, people's motivations do indeed come down to economics. It takes a really tanking economy to mobilize the masses. When hunger is staring you in the eyes things rapidly get real!
This has been known for a long time by campaign managers and politicians.
It reminds me of James Carville's the "Its the economy stupid" during the
Clinton campaign.
Along those lines, Social Security has long been considered the third rail of politics (touch it and get electrocuted).
 
Yeah, and I suspect autocrats, like Putin, are well aware. The only thing they fear is a mob so big it can't be stopped by military, or worse: includes the military!
 

1. Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed.

2. A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All disputes of the last 30 years will be considered resolved.

3. Russia is expected not to invade neighbouring countries and NATO will not expand further.

4. A dialogue between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, will be held to resolve all security issues and establish conditions for de-escalation, ensuring global security and expanding opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.

5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.

6. The size of Ukraine's Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000.

7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its Constitution that it will never join NATO and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be accepted into the Alliance in future.

8. NATO agrees not to station its troops on Ukrainian territory.

9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.

10. The US guarantees:

  • the US will receive compensation for the guarantees it provides
  • if Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantees
  • if Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated and recognition of new territories and the other advantages of this agreement will be revoked
  • if Ukraine targets Moscow or St Petersburg with a missile without cause, the security guarantees will be deemed void.
11. Ukraine has the right to EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while its application is considered.

12. A major global package for Ukraine's reconstruction is envisaged, including (but not limited to):

  • establishing a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in high-growth sectors such as technology, data centres and artificial intelligence
  • US cooperation with Ukraine in restoring, developing, modernising and operating gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities
  • joint efforts for the rebuilding of war-affected regions to reconstruct and modernise cities and residential areas
  • infrastructure development
  • development of minerals and natural resources
  • a special World Bank funding package to accelerate these efforts.
13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:

  • sanctions relief will be discussed and agreed step by step and on a case-by-case basis
  • the United States will conclude a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centres, Arctic rare-metal extraction projects and other mutually beneficial opportunities
  • Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8.
14. Frozen funds will be used as follows:

  • US$100 billion of frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to reconstruct and invest in Ukraine.
  • the US will receive 50% of the profits from this operation.
  • Europe will add US$100 billion to increase the investment available for Ukraine's reconstruction. Funds frozen in Europe will be released.
  • the remaining frozen Russian assets will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment instrument for joint projects in selected sectors.
  • this fund will aim to strengthen relations and expand common interests to create a powerful incentive not to return to conflict.
15. A joint US-Russian security working group will be established to facilitate implementation and ensure compliance with all provisions of this agreement.

16. Russia will enshrine in its legislation a policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine.

17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend treaties on non-proliferation and nuclear arms control, including the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.

18. Ukraine agrees to remain a non-nuclear state under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be brought into operation under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) supervision and the electricity produced will be shared equally between Russia and Ukraine – 50:50.

20. Both countries commit to implementing educational programmes in schools and society aimed at promoting mutual understanding, tolerance of different cultures and overcoming racism and prejudices:

  • Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and protection of linguistic minorities.
  • both countries will agree to abolish all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and educational systems.
  • all Nazi ideology and related activity must be rejected and banned.
21. Territories:

  • Crimea, along with Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, will be recognised de facto as Russian, including by the United States.
  • Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts will be frozen along the line of contact, meaning de facto recognition of this line as the actual border.
  • Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five listed regions.
  • Ukraine's Armed Forces will withdraw from parts of Donetsk Oblast they currently control. This withdrawal area will be considered a neutral demilitarised buffer zone, internationally recognised as territory of the Russian Federation. Russian troops will not enter this demilitarised zone.
22. After agreeing future territorial arrangements, both Russia and Ukraine commit not to alter them by force. Security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this obligation.

23. Russia will not obstruct Ukraine's use of the Dnipro River for commercial activity, and agreements will be reached on the free transport of grain through the Black Sea.

24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve outstanding issues:

  • all prisoners of war and the bodies of the deceased will be exchanged on an "all-for-all" basis.
  • all civilian hostages and detainees will be returned, including children
  • a family reunification programme will be implemented.
  • measures will be taken to ease the suffering of those affected in the war.
25. Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days.

26. All parties involved in the conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and will agree not to make any future claims or pursue any grievances.

27. This agreement will be legally binding. A Peace Council led by President Donald J. Trump will oversee and guarantee its implementation. Sanctions will be imposed for violations.

28. Once all parties agree to this document, a ceasefire will enter into force immediately after both sides withdraw their forces to the agreed positions to begin the implementation of the agreement.

There are supposed US security guarantees but they are explicitly voided if Ukraine strikes Moscow or St. Petersburg "without cause". This is a subjectively interpreted trigger that Russia could manipulate through false-flag operations or provocations.

Several provisions refer to actions that NATO will take, which I am sure the other countries involved in NATO might be surprised to learn this way.

Point 13 promises Russia reintegration into the global economy, sanctions relief, a long-term US economic cooperation agreement, and G8 reinstatement. These rewards come without requiring territorial withdrawal, reparations, or political reforms.

Point 14 allocates $100 billion in frozen Russian assets to Ukrainian reconstruction but gives the US 50% of profits, while remaining Russian assets go into a US-Russian joint investment fund. Why are there going to be "profits" from a reconstruction fund? Why is the US getting its beak wet like this? It sure sounds like a mafia style shakedown.

Point 26 grants "full amnesty for their actions during the war" to all parties. This is contrary to international law and is basically the anti-Nuremberg.

Point 27 creates a "Peace Council led by President Donald J. Trump" as the enforcement mechanism. This places adjudication authority in the hands of an individual with documented admiration for Putin and personal financial interests that may conflict with Ukrainian security.

The upshot is basically that Ukraine would permanently surrender ~20% of its territory and constitutional sovereignty in exchange for temporary security guarantees from an unreliable partner, while Russia receives sanctions relief, economic partnerships, international rehabilitation, and legal immunity for war crimes, and the US receives a big fat payday for cutting Ukraine apart.
 
Any agreements that Russia makes are worthless, at least until the government gets changed. A previous agreement had the US, Russia and others guaranteeing Ukrainian sovereignty in exchange for Ukraine doing away with their nukes. None of that was taken seriously. Stronger guarantees are required (like NATO troops in Ukraine.
 
... and while all this is going on the North Korean kleptocracy runs "happily" along....

Kinda off-topic I know. Just couldn't resist. :rolleyes:
 
As usual, Putin possesses Trump and can dictate whatever he wants. The problem is that such a Trojan horse, which the USA suggests, is a general permission to redraw borders by means of war. I guess there is a giant party right now in Beijing, and probably Moscow, too, and raising concerns in Denmark.
 
As usual, Putin possesses Trump and can dictate whatever he wants. The problem is that such a Trojan horse, which the USA suggests, is a general permission to redraw borders by means of war. I guess there is a giant party right now in Beijing, and probably Moscow, too, and raising concerns in Denmark.

I assure you that those of us here who can think are indeed concerned. Especially since they made that genius move to abolish the standing army and only retain a small "special force" for use by the US. We have a nice air force but as we all know you need an eighteen year old holding a rifle with his boots on the ground to call any real shots.
 
Also, the monarchy is supposed to stay out of politics but already before he became king the current one had a special private dinner with the chiefs of all the military forces which we were supposed to believe were "social".

[SARCASM]I guess they were just talking medals.[/SARCASM]
 
I forgot to mention Panama. It is time to accept the new reality: The USA is no longer an ally anyone can rely on.

And even if you blame Trump. Nobody can ever be certain that they won't elect another moron into office again. If international politics and the economy become toys of a single person, then nothing will be reliable anymore. This is a big game changer, more than just an idiot driving crazy.
 
I forgot to mention Panama. It is time to accept the new reality: The USA is no longer an ally anyone can rely on.

And even if you blame Trump. Nobody can ever be certain that they won't elect another moron into office again. If international politics and the economy become toys of a single person, then nothing will be reliable anymore. This is a big game changer, more than just an idiot driving crazy.
That's right on the nose. Noone can ever trust the US more than 2 years at the time now. Sad but true.
 
I suspect that Trump's peace plan will not matter so much.
Things are changing and Trump is not so much the leader of the MAGAs as one who follows what they want. This is what ended up happening with the Epstein files. MAGA wanted them out. Trump did not, but he caved when the party had moved on without him.

WRT Ukraine, most of the Republican party favors Ukraine now and will oppose Trump pulling the rug out from underneath them.
This is why I think that Trump will TACO.
 
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Russia's continues its traditional bluster, but its military is becoming increasingly crappy.
They can not replace their lost equipment.
The Ukrainian war is making their weapons look bad. Their arms sales are plummeting.
Their economy is declining.

 
There seems to be a lot of mixed signals about the war. The humongous Russian casualty count, the weakening Russian economy and military complex, the more extensive Ukrainian attack into Russian, yet the Russian assaults remain unabated and seemingly inexhaustible.

On top of that, the apparent willingness of Russia to get into a war with NATO. If they are struggling so much with Ukraine, how can they manage to fight a more extensive war against what would be a more aggressive foe?
 

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