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What's going to happen to Ukraine?

  • Context: Ukraine 
  • Thread starter Thread starter phinds
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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on the geopolitical implications of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, particularly in the context of European military readiness and American involvement. Participants express concern over the EU's reliance on U.S. military support, noting that Europe has significantly fewer troops compared to Russia. The conversation highlights Ukraine's effective military strategies, including the use of drones and targeting Russian oil infrastructure, which are contributing to Russia's economic decline. The potential for increased European militarization and NATO expansion in response to Russian aggression is also emphasized.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of NATO's role in European security
  • Familiarity with military strategies involving drones
  • Knowledge of the economic impacts of warfare, particularly regarding oil exports
  • Awareness of historical context surrounding post-WWII European defense policies
NEXT STEPS
  • Research the current state of NATO troop deployments in Europe
  • Explore the effectiveness of drone warfare in modern conflicts
  • Investigate the economic consequences of sanctions on Russia's oil industry
  • Examine historical precedents for military alliances and their evolution post-WWII
USEFUL FOR

This discussion is beneficial for geopolitical analysts, military strategists, policymakers, and anyone interested in the dynamics of European security and the implications of the Ukraine conflict on global stability.

It's about to be fucked.

en.protothema.gr

Telegraph: Trump prepares to recognise Russia's occupied territories in Ukraine - ProtoThema English

The US president will send Steve Whitcoff and Jared Kushner next week to discuss Russia's territorial gains, according to the British newspaper, without taking European concerns seriously
en.protothema.gr en.protothema.gr

On Friday, the Kremlin announced that it had received a revised strategy for ending the war, drawn up after emergency talks between Ukrainian and U.S. officials in Geneva last week.

The original 28-point peace plan, formulated by Whitcoff after discussions with Russian officials, included de facto U.S. recognition of Crimea and the two eastern regions of the Donbas. It also proposed de facto recognition of Russian-held areas behind the contact line in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions following any ceasefire agreement.

In Geneva, Ukrainian and U.S. officials negotiated a new, 19-point version of the plan that is less favorable to Moscow. However, multiple sources say that U.S. offers of recognition remain part of the strategy.
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The US president will send Steve Whitcoff and Jared Kushner next week to discuss Russia's territorial gains​


What !!! No mention of a grand hotel or golf course in the peace plan. Why then send Jared?
 
This video discusses:
  1. To what extent is Russia making covert attacks in Europe?
  2. How messed up is Russia's economy and international situation in general? (very)
This is desperation stuff. Ukraine only has to hold out over the long run to beat Russia. However, they are kicking their butts.

 
Here is a video summarizing how things are going in the Ukraine war.
Ukraine's technological progress is a big problem for Russia.
Of course they have lots of other problems also.
 
BillTre said:
Here is a video summarizing how things are going in the Ukraine war.
Click to expand...
Well.... That's a very one-sided summary. While the problems mentioned in Russia are real, similar problems are very real in Ukraine too. And on the battlefield, it's still about Russia having the advantage in material and troops.

Both sides are on their last leg => adequate, reliable and regular external support is essential.
 
This video is an interview of General Petraeus about the war in Ukraine in general. there is a good section on the effects of drones and other technologies on modern warfare. Things are rapidly changing.

 
The military nature of the war in Ukraine is going through some changes. Good for Ukraine, bad for Russia.



Drones control of much of the battlefield and the Russian Black Sea Fleet has departed Crimea.
The Russian economy is cratering.
Their time is limited.
 
Recent military events make things look bad for the Russia t the strategic level:



Tactical details from the Donbas:
 
BillTre said:
Recent military events make things look bad for the Russia
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This goes on (on these, and some more channels) for around two years now
One have to wonder why it's still mostly about the Russians advancing slowly.

If you look only for these channels, then I can understand your skepticism about my earlier post, but this is not the whole picture. I can understand that they are trying to keep up the morale, but...

... But the sad reality is, that the Ukrainian lines in general are severely undermanned and under-equipped. And while the Russian side is in worse shape in many regards, they are still capable of sending in more troops and equipment, completely disregarding the effectiveness and cost.
Their numerical superiority normally would not be enough for sustained offensive operations, but their glide bombs still do level the chances on the frontlines.

Further effective and reliable military (and other) aid/support is essential.
 
Rive said:
If you look only for these channels, then I can understand your skepticism about my earlier post, but this is not the whole picture. I can understand that they are trying to keep up the morale, but...
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And your opinion (with no links) is based on the thin reports of the MSM?

Russia and its military are continuing to fall apart in many ways.
 
I have seen / heard / read on TV and some newspapers that the casualty rate is currently between 1:25 (German estimate) to 1:30 (Ukrainian general, TV). That's why Russia is recruiting legionnaires in Africa. We call them cannon food in German. So, yes, Russia has problems keeping up its man count, but the reservoir of desperate people on earth is huge. And Putin doesn't care about casualties.

The only effective, albeit slow, lever is the financial impact of sanctions, because they affect the oligarchs, and maybe to some extent, the cost of living. However, the majority of Russians still support the war. They have been exposed to Russian propaganda for way too long. Control the media, and you control the public. Works for Orban, works for Erdogan, works for Putin, and the US is currently under review.

The financial front is the only important one. Putin is neither interested in any form of peace deal nor does he care about losses, human or material.
 
BillTre said:
Russia and its military are continuing to fall apart in many ways.
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Sure they do. The issue is, that Ukraine is also in a really precarious situation.

My 'opinion' is based on a lot wider bunch of sources then those two.
By the way, what's MSM stands for?

fresh_42 said:
We call them cannon food in German.
Click to expand...
Cannon fodder in english.
fresh_42 said:
The financial front is the only important one.
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I wouldn't say that. Ukraine does not has those external sources that Russia has for troops. They need more material and tech to keep some kind of balance till economics can kick in. The 'Russian way' is not an option on that side.
 
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Here is an interesting update on the war in Ukraine from Jason Smart and Gen. Ben Hodges. They cover many topics. Hodges has lots of relevant knowledge.

 
Here is a Prof. Gerdes video about how the Russian and Ukrainian armies are doing now.
Why the Ukrainians are winning.

 
Here is a comment from Sir Christopher Clark on the war in Ukraine:

www.dw.com

It was time for Europe 'to draw a line'

DW spoke with leading historian Christopher Clark on his perspective on the war in Ukraine. Clark is being awarded the Charlemagne Award for the European Media for his work advocating a united Europe.
www.dw.com www.dw.com

Source: Serious. BBC level.
www.dw.com/en/it-was-time-for-europe-to-draw-a-line-historian-christopher-clark/video-61859830
Format: 5 min interview (in English).
Sir Christopher: Famous in Germany for his many TV productions of several documentaries on history. Australian, multi-linguistic, has a History Chair in Cambridge.
 
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The nation of criminals strikes again.

NATO members put together $750M for Ukraine weapons, and the US is simply absconding with it and giving it to their military industrial complex. The program is called the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) and the US is just going to take other nations' money contributed for a specific purpose and use it to make their own weapons for their own stockpiles.

www.yahoo.com

NATO chief evasive on US weapon diversion from Ukraine to Middle East

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Thursday declined to directly address reports that the United States may divert military aid intended for Ukraine to the Middle East as the war with Iran rages on....
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com

Under the PURL initiative, NATO countries work together to buy defence equipment from the United States for Ukraine, following a sharp reduction in direct US funding.

PURL recently covered a significant share of ammunition for Patriot air defence systems and other air defence capabilities.

According to The Washington Post, the Pentagon has also informed Congress of plans to reallocate around $750 million from the PURL programme to replenish US military stockpiles, rather than provide additional aid to Ukraine.
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Although a final decision to redirect the equipment has not yet been made, the shift would highlight the growing trade-offs required to sustain the U.S. war against Iran, where U.S. Central Command has hit more than 9,000 targets in just under four weeks of fighting.
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They are already stealing from the fund and promising to pay it back:
According to a notice that the Pentagon sent to Congress, reviewed by The Post, the Defense Department has used some of the European PURL money for other capabilities lawmakers that intended to be paid for by American funding through USAI.
...

Separately, the Pentagon notified Congress on Monday that it intended to divert about $750 million in funding provided by NATO countries through the PURL program to restock the U.S. military’s own inventories, rather than to send additional assistance to Ukraine, according to two U.S. officials.
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Promises from an American aren't worth shit these days. Does anyone really believe that they will make good on this particular promise and actually pay back the funds that they have already effectively stolen?

The first official said it was unclear whether European countries providing their funds for the initiative to bolster Ukraine understood how the money was being spent.
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I bet they fucking don't understand.
 
EricDMMiller said:
Promises from an American aren't worth shit these days. Does anyone really believe that they will make good on this particular promise and actually pay back the funds that they have already effectively stolen?
Click to expand...

They should pull their money back out of that fund and put it somewhere else more useful to their goals.

This is very much like how the government used to "borrow" money from a Social Security Fund and claim they would pay it back. That never happened.
 
Here is a report very Ukraine positive about how successful military tactics have drastically changed.
Success in the field is demonstrated in battlefield results.

If the US goes into Iran, this is what they should expects a similar welcome. Same for the Chinese going into Taiwan.
Ukraine tried to help out the US technologically, but Trump was against that.
Now we may have a Trump relative owned bran new company get a big contract to make drones for the military. Why am I not surprised?

 
Here is a detailed General Ben Hodges analysis of Ukrainian military tactics thatallowed them to break through three defensive lines in Zaporizhzhia (all tactics, no maps):




 
phinds said:
Would they even be WILLING to do that, given that it will likely be quite expensive?
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Well you may need to factor in that for the US war means cash in, for Europeans (mostly) cash out.

We must remember that the only ones really benefiting from war (anywhere) are the war supplies manufacturers.

For example to haveva more general view away from Ukraine let's discuss other wars: Between 2019 and 2023, 99% of Israel's conventional arms imports came from the US and Germany, with the US providing 69% and Germany 30%. These imports are heavily focused on aircraft, guided missiles, and naval equipment used in the Gaza war.

On the other hand Hamas uses a diverse arsenal of smuggled, locally produced, and repurposed weapons to fight, primarily sourced from Iran, with significant manufacturing taking place in Gaza. Weapons include Iranian-supplied rockets, anti-tank missiles, and drones, alongside homemade rockets, mortars, and small arms created from repurposed infrastructure and explosives.

Germany has historically maintained a "special responsibility" (Staatsräson) toward Israel due to the Holocaust, often leading to strong diplomatic and military support. While this "historical debt" has previously meant unconditional support, by early 2026, the German government, under shifting political pressure, has begun to show strain in this stance, with some officials criticizing Israel's actions in Gaza and reconsidering arms exports.

So in your opinion who is more invested in continuing this so-called "war"?

Now apply the same logic to Ukraine.

Based on 2020–2024 data, the United States is the primary supplier of weapons to Ukraine, accounting for roughly 45% of major arms imports. Germany (12%) and Poland (11%) are the next largest suppliers.

My take is that precisely the US and Germany are the most benefited from continuing war in Ukraine.
 
Here is a video on how Ukraine is intercepting Russia's supply routes to Crimea. Although not directly attacking Crimea, it is putting it under siege by limiting both of it is supply routes, bridge to Russia (impaired by previous attacks) and overland route north of the Azov Sea. This is Russia's land bridge for supplying Crimea. It is now highly susceptible to drone attacks.

The US military seems to not be following Ukraine's obviously successful example of drone. I would guess a lot of this is Trump and his attraction to large arms producers, that would want to maintain their profits.
I am guessing this part of why Iran did so well vs. the US in the Trump-Epstein failed war of distraction.
Here are some relevant comments from the video:

Screenshot 2026-05-25 at 6.54.00 PM.webp

Screenshot 2026-05-25 at 6.54.48 PM.webp

Screenshot 2026-05-25 at 6.55.10 PM.webp


Here is the video:
 

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